HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0521

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 16	★★★
07:00	2027 FOMC voting member Bostic chairs a meeting, 2026 FOMC voting member Harker and 2027 FOMC voting member Daly deliver keynote speeches.	★★★
14:00	UK April CPI month-on-month	★★★
	UK April Retail Price Index month-on-month	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 16	★★★★
	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending May 16	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 16	★★★
Next day 00:00	2027 FOMC voting member Barkin attends an event titled “Federal Reserve Listening.”	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak oscillation	99-100	103-104
Gold	Oscillation rebound	3220-3250	3350-3380
Crude Oil	Strong oscillation	57-58	64-65
Euro	Oscillation rebound	1.1180-1.1200	1.1330-1.1380

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In early May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate stabilized; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In April, non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The year-on-year CPI for April showed a slight decline, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts; April retail data performed poorly but was slightly better than expected.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continued to decline yesterday, with a small cycle oscillating downwards, showing weak short-term performance, and no signs of a bottoming out yet. Caution is advised regarding the risk of further weakening, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the previous low support area. Overall, prices are at relatively low levels, with daily oscillation and consolidation, and a rebound may occur. The upper resistance area is around 103-104, while the lower support area is around 99-100.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, pay attention to the effectiveness of the previous low support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and there is uncertainty in the Eastern European situation. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced. The May Federal Reserve interest rate decision maintained rates, with a resilient labor market and a slight rise in short-term inflation, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan, while economic downside risks increased. The U.S. April non-farm payroll data showed job growth exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for April showed a moderate decline. The U.S. tariff policy is tending to ease, which may temper gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price rebounded significantly yesterday, showing strong performance in the short term, breaking through the previous resistance area and forming a support structure. However, there is also selling pressure above, so if there are long positions, it is advisable to take profits on highs and avoid chasing after the price near the resistance area. From a longer-term perspective, after a high-level fluctuation, the daily line has retreated, entering a short-term correction. The upper resistance level is around 3350-3380, while the lower support level is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound; if there are long positions, take profits on highs and pay attention to the effectiveness of the upper resistance level.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global oil demand forecast for this and next year, slightly lowering the US oil production forecast for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next year while lowering the economic growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. The OPEC+ member countries’ meeting in early May will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. There is uncertainty in US tariff policies, which may affect demand. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report this Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil rose slightly yesterday, with short-term fluctuations moving upward. The price tested the resistance structure multiple times but has not broken through significantly. In the short term, the bulls have a slight advantage, attempting to find low buying opportunities on pullbacks while also monitoring whether the resistance level can be clearly broken. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with repeated fluctuations at low levels and no significant signs of stabilization. The upper resistance area is around 64-65, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias; consider low buying opportunities on pullbacks and monitor whether the resistance structure can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced. The bank relies on data, evaluates successively, and dynamically adjusts its monetary policy stance, paying attention to trade situations. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision remains unchanged, with a resilient labor market and a slight rise in short-term inflation, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan, while economic downside risks increase. The US non-farm payrolls in April slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the April CPI year-on-year showed a moderate decline. Pay attention to the Eurozone’s May manufacturing PMI value this Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price has recently fluctuated and rebounded, showing a relatively strong performance in the short term, currently still near the resistance level. If it breaks upward significantly, the market will strengthen further, and short-term attention should be on low buying opportunities and taking profits on highs. Overall, from a longer-term perspective, there has been high-level fluctuation and retreat, and it may enter a correction in the short term, with no signs of a bottoming out yet. The upper resistance area is around 1.1330-1.1380, while the lower support area is around 1.1180-1.1200.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, with signs of strengthening; pay attention to whether the resistance level can be broken upward.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.