HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0715

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	OPEC releases monthly oil market report	★★★
To be determined	Bank of England Governor Bailey and Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt speak at a dinner at the Lord Mayor’s residence in London	★★★
14:45	2025 FOMC voting member Collins speaks	★★★
17:00	Germany’s July ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	★★★
	Eurozone’s July ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	★★★
	Eurozone’s May Industrial Production Month-on-Month	★★★
20:30	Canada’s June CPI Month-on-Month	★★★
	U.S. June Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year	★★★★★
	U.S. June Seasonally Adjusted CPI Month-on-Month	★★★★
	U.S. June Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI Month-on-Month	★★★
	U.S. June Unadjusted Core CPI Year-on-Year	★★★
	U.S. July New York Fed Manufacturing Index	★★★
21:15	Federal Reserve Governor Bowman delivers welcoming remarks at a Fed-hosted conference	★★★
Next day 00:45	Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks at a Fed-hosted conference	★★★
Next day 02:45	2025 FOMC voting member Collins speaks	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term rebound	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Volatile rebound	3300-3330	3380-3400
Oil	Short-term adjustment	64-65	79-80
Euro	Short-term pullback	1.1600-1.1620	1.1750-1.1780

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, but uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, and the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a stable labor market. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, showing a robust labor market. The core PCE price index rose slightly in May; the ISM Manufacturing PMI also saw a slight increase in May. Attention is on the U.S. June Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year report on Tuesday.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continued its rebound yesterday, closing with a bullish candlestick on the daily chart. The short-term trend is oscillating upward, with no signs of weakening, suggesting there may still be room for further increases, and a rebound trend may continue in the short term. Overall, the larger structure shows a weak oscillation, with a slowing decline, entering a rebound phase. The upper resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, with bulls in control, suggesting there may still be room for further rebounds.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a 25 basis point cut for the seventh consecutive time, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high and a robust labor market, while the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May showed a slight increase. Attention is on the U.S. CPI data for June.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices saw a slight rise and then a pullback yesterday, entering a small cycle of adjustment, with signs of stabilization appearing in the night session, potentially continuing to test resistance levels. During the day, short-term long opportunities can be attempted for timely profits, while also monitoring whether the resistance level can be broken. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper small resistance level is around 3380-3400, while the lower support level is around 3300-3330.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, attempt short-term long opportunities during the day, and monitor whether the resistance structure can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised this year’s crude oil price expectations; the June OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, as well as the economic growth expectations for this year and next; the July IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand expectations for this year and next. At the beginning of July, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with another increase expected in September, and discussions on pausing the increase from October. EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant increase, with large data fluctuations that may affect the supply-demand structure. Attention is on the OPEC monthly report on Tuesday and the EIA crude oil inventory on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil saw a rise and then a pullback in the night session, with a large bearish candle on the daily chart. The small cycle shows weak performance, and the current decline is slowing down. Attention is on whether a stabilization signal appears; if it clearly breaks down, caution is warranted as the market may weaken. Overall, crude oil has seen a significant pullback previously, testing important structures, and may show signs of stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, small cycle shows weak performance, monitor for signs of a stop in the decline.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a 25 basis point cut for the seventh consecutive time, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The trade escalation has led to a slowdown in economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly high short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty, while the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, with not much difference.

Technical Analysis:

The euro continued its weak trend yesterday, with a small cycle showing a downward adjustment and no signs of a stop in the decline. In the short term, the downward adjustment may continue, and high short opportunities can be attempted, with profits taken on dips. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward fluctuation, with a strong structure in the larger cycle, entering a short-term adjustment. The upper pressure area is around 1.1750-1.1780, while the lower support area is around 1.1600-1.1620.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, attempt rebound high short opportunities, and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.