HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0723

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending July 18	★★★
22:00	Eurozone July Consumer Confidence Index Preliminary	★★★
	U.S. June Existing Home Sales Annualized	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending July 18	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Oklahoma Cushing Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending July 18	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory for the week ending July 18	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak Fluctuation	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Strong Fluctuation	3350-3360	3430-3450
Crude Oil	Short-term Adjustment	64-65	68-69
Euro	Strong Fluctuation	1.1600-1.1630	1.1800-1.1820

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, and the unemployment rate is at a low level, indicating a stable labor market. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, showing a robust labor market. The core PCE price index rose slightly in May; the ISM Manufacturing PMI increased slightly in June, and the CPI year-on-year rate was 2.7%, indicating moderate inflation in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continued its downward trend yesterday, closing with a large bearish candle on the daily chart. The short-term trend is showing a downward oscillation with no signs of a bottoming out. In the short term, it may maintain a weak oscillation outlook, with prices likely testing the support area below. Overall, the larger structure indicates a weak oscillation, with a slowing decline, and a short-term rebound trend may be entering. The upper resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, with the short-term trend continuing to decline, possibly testing the effectiveness of the support below.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, with no signs of easing, and the situation in Eastern Europe remains turbulent. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the June CPI year-on-year rate showed a slight increase, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices continued to rise yesterday, closing with a large bullish candle on the daily chart, showing strong short-term performance. Prices are approaching previous high resistance levels, which may lead to selling pressure. Caution is advised as the market may enter a correction phase. If holding long positions, consider taking profits at highs, with a short-term strategy focused on buying on dips, while also monitoring whether prices can reach new highs. From a larger perspective, the daily chart shows high-level oscillation with prices fluctuating back and forth. The upper resistance level is around 3430-3450, while the lower support level is around 3350-3360.

Viewpoint: Strong oscillation, consider taking profits on long positions at highs, with a short-term strategy focused on buying on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the July EIA monthly report, the forecast for this year’s crude oil prices was slightly raised; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this and next year. At the beginning of July, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with expectations for another increase in September and discussions about pausing production increases starting in October. As of the week ending July 11, EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant decrease, with recent data showing large fluctuations that may affect the supply-demand structure. Attention is on the EIA inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently shown a volatile performance, with a slowdown in the short-term decline. It is currently close to a support area and has not clearly broken below it, suggesting that a volatile trend may continue in the short term. Attention should be paid to signs of stabilization; if it clearly breaks below the support structure, the trend may weaken. Overall, crude oil is in a support area with volatile adjustments, and attention should be on signs of stabilization at a larger scale. The upper pressure area is around 68-69, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support area; if it breaks below, the trend may further weaken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a continuous seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral rates. The inflation forecast for this and next year was lowered, along with the GDP growth forecast for next year, as trade tensions led to slower economic growth and inflation. In June, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly higher short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. Attention is on the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday and the preliminary manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone.

Technical Analysis:

The euro continued its upward trend yesterday, with a short-term oscillation upward, showing signs of strengthening, potentially testing the pressure near previous highs. In the short term, attention should be on opportunities to buy on dips and timely profit-taking on highs. Overall, after a significant previous rise, the market has entered a short-term adjustment phase, waiting for signs of stabilization after a pullback. The upper pressure area is around 1.1800-1.1820, while the lower support area is around 1.1600-1.1630.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a strong bias, potentially testing the previous high pressure level, with a focus on short-term buying strategies.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.