HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0722

Time	Data and Events	Importance
09:30	The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting.	★★★
17:15	Bank of England Governor Bailey, external members of the Monetary Policy Committee, Cunliffe and Wilkins, speak at the House of Commons Treasury Committee.	★★★
20:30	Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers a welcome speech at a regulatory meeting.	★★★
22:00	U.S. July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.	★★★
Next day 01:00	Federal Reserve Governor Bowman hosts a fireside chat at a large bank capital framework meeting organized by the Federal Reserve.	★★★
Next day 02:30	NYMEX New York crude oil August futures roll over, completing the last trading session on the floor.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak oscillation	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Oscillating rebound	3350-3360	3400-3430
Crude Oil	Short-term adjustment	64-65	68-69
Euro	Short-term oscillation	1.1600-1.1630	1.1700-1.1720

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, uncertainty in economic prospects has somewhat diminished, and the unemployment rate is at a low level, indicating a stable labor market. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, showing a robust labor market. The core PCE price index rose slightly in May; the ISM manufacturing PMI increased slightly in June, and the CPI year-on-year rate for June was 2.7%, indicating moderate inflation in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index fell during the overnight session, closing with a large bearish candle. The short cycle failed to create a new high, and caution is advised regarding selling pressure above. The short-term outlook is oscillating or recovering into a weak trend, possibly testing the support area below. Overall, the larger structure indicates a weak oscillation, with a slowing decline, and a short-term rebound trend may be entering. The resistance area above is around 99.5-100, while the support area below is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, with signs of resistance in the short cycle, possibly testing the effectiveness of the support below.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, with no signs of easing, and the situation in Eastern Europe remains turbulent. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. In June, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year according to the dot plot. In June, the U.S. added 147,000 jobs in non-farm payrolls, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the year-on-year CPI for June showed a slight increase, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price performed strongly yesterday, with a small cycle of oscillation upward, closing with a large bullish candle on the daily chart. There may be support forming below, and the current position is still in a pressure zone. If there are long positions, it is advisable to take profits on highs. In the short term, pay attention to opportunities for low buying on pullbacks. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows high-level oscillation, with prices fluctuating back and forth. The upper pressure level is around 3400-3430, while the lower support level is around 3350-3360.

Viewpoint: Oscillation rebound, bulls are dominant, pay attention to opportunities for low buying on pullbacks, and take profits in a timely manner on highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised the oil price forecast for this year; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next. At the beginning of July, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with expectations for another increase in September and discussions about pausing the increase from October. As of the week ending July 11, EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant decrease, and this data has been volatile recently, which may affect the supply-demand structure. Pay attention to the EIA inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil continued to show slight oscillation yesterday, with a weak performance in the small cycle. The current price is close to the support area, and in the short term, it may remain oscillatory. Pay attention to signs of stabilization; if it clearly breaks below this structure, the market may weaken. Overall, crude oil is in a support area oscillating and adjusting, so watch for signs of stabilization at a larger level. The upper pressure area is around 68-69, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support area. If it breaks below, the market may further weaken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a continuous seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate cut cycle, with no discussion on neutral rates. The inflation forecast for this year and next has been lowered, along with the GDP growth forecast for next year, as trade upgrades lead to slower economic growth and inflation. In June, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly higher short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. Pay attention to the ECB interest rate decision and the preliminary manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone on Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rebounded significantly yesterday, with a strong performance in the small cycle, closing with a large bullish candle on the daily chart. It is currently in a pressure area without a clear breakout, and in the short term, it may remain oscillatory. Both high selling and low buying are possible during the day, while also paying attention to signs of stabilization on a second pullback. Overall, after a significant rise in the previous market, it has entered a short-term adjustment phase, waiting for signs of stabilization on a pullback. The upper pressure area is around 1.1700-1.1720, while the lower support area is around 1.1600-1.1630.

Viewpoint: Short-term oscillation, pay attention to signs of stabilization on a second pullback.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.