HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0811

Time	Data and Events	Importance
	No important data

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Short-term Adjustment	97.5-98	100-100.5
Gold	Fluctuating Strong	3350-3360	3430-3450
Crude Oil	Fluctuating Weak	62-63	66-67
Euro	Fluctuating Strong	1.1550-1.1580	1.1720-1.1750

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained its stance for the fifth consecutive time, with a divergence among committee members. Inflation levels are slightly high, the labor market is balanced, and there may be downside risks. Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, and the outlook remains uncertain, with little change in the assessment of tariff impacts. In July, non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, in line with expectations, indicating signs of a slowing labor market. The core PCE price index for June remained flat compared to the previous value; the ISM manufacturing PMI for July slightly declined. Pay attention to the US July CPI data on Tuesday.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index slightly corrected last week, with a small decline, showing a short-term oscillating trend without signs of stabilization. In the short term, it may experience low-level oscillation; pay attention to the effectiveness of the support area. If it breaks the structure, the trend may weaken. Overall, the price is in a low-level oscillation, testing the support area multiple times, and watch for stabilization signals. The upper resistance area is around 100-100.5, while the lower support area is around 97.5-98.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment may lean towards an oscillating structure; pay attention to signals of stopping the decline and stabilization.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is turbulent, with uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with inflation meeting expectations, the economy remaining resilient but facing downside risks, and trade conditions being unclear. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also maintained rates unchanged, with slightly high inflation levels, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. In July, the US non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a slowing labor market; the June CPI year-on-year slightly warmed, meeting expectations. Pay attention to the US July CPI data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices slightly rose last week, with daily fluctuations trending upwards, approaching the resistance area, showing signs of slowing bullish momentum. In the short term, bulls still have a slight advantage, but be wary of potential selling pressure; if holding long positions, consider taking profits at highs. From a larger perspective, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper resistance level is around 3430-3450, while the lower support level is around 3350-3360.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating strong; if holding long positions, take profits at highs and watch if the resistance level can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised the forecast for this year’s crude oil prices; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this and next year. At the end of July, the OPEC ministerial meeting did not propose policy recommendations. In early August, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, exiting the current round of production cuts a year early. Pay attention to the energy monthly reports from OPEC and the other two major organizations, and monitor EIA crude oil inventories.

Technical Analysis:

Recent US crude oil has significantly retreated, with daily fluctuations trending downwards and a large bearish weekly candle. The short-term performance is relatively weak, currently in a support area, and may experience fluctuations or a slight rebound. If there are short positions, it is advisable to take profits on dips. Overall, crude oil is in a support area undergoing fluctuations and adjustments, with prices continuously testing the support area, and no significant stabilization signals have emerged yet. The minor resistance area is around 66-67, while the support area is around 62-63.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating weakly, nearing the support area, take profits on short positions on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with the inflation outlook generally in line with expectations, though future uncertainties exist due to unclear tariff policies and trade conditions. The Eurozone economy remains resilient, but economic growth is inclined towards downside risks. The Federal Reserve’s July interest rate decision also maintained rates unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. The preliminary manufacturing PMI values for the Eurozone and major economies showed little change, generally meeting expectations. The US non-farm payrolls for July fell short of expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a slowing labor market.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose slightly last week, with daily fluctuations trending upwards, currently approaching a resistance level. In the short cycle, fluctuations are present, and caution is advised for potential selling pressure. The probability of testing the resistance level in the short term is relatively high, and intraday short-term long opportunities can be attempted for timely profits. Overall, the larger upward structure remains unchanged, with a significant previous pullback showing signs of stabilization at the support structure. The resistance area is around 1.1720-1.1750, while the support area is around 1.1550-1.1580.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating strongly, approaching the resistance level; take profits on long positions at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.