HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0815

Time	Data and Events	Importance
20:30	Canada June Wholesale Sales MoM	★★★
	US July Retail Sales MoM	★★★★
	US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index	★★★
	US July Import Price Index MoM	★★★
21:15	US July Industrial Production MoM	★★★
22:00	US August 1-Year Inflation Rate Expectation Preliminary Value	★★★
	US June Business Inventories MoM	★★★
	US August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary Value	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Short-term Adjustment	97.5-98	100-100.5
Gold	Short-term Pullback	3300-3310	3380-3400
Crude Oil	Fluctuating Weak	61-62	64-65
Euro	Fluctuating Strong	1.1600-1.1630	1.1750-1.1780

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained rates for the fifth consecutive time, with dissent among committee members. Inflation levels are slightly high, and the labor market is in a balanced state, which may pose downside risks. Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, and the outlook is uncertain, with little change in the assessment of tariff impacts. In July, non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, in line with expectations, indicating signs of a slowing labor market. July CPI data remained unchanged, below expectations; June core PCE price index was flat compared to the previous value; July ISM Manufacturing PMI slightly declined.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index saw a slight rebound in the overnight session, with moderate strength. The lower support area has not been significantly broken, but there is also selling pressure above. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating adjustment trend, with attention on whether a stabilization signal appears. Overall, prices are in a low-level fluctuation, testing the support area multiple times without showing significant stabilization signals. The upper resistance area is around 100-100.5, while the lower support area is around 97.5-98.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment may lean towards a fluctuating structure, focusing on the effectiveness of the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is turbulent, with uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates, with inflation meeting expectations. The economy remains resilient but has downside risks, and the trade situation is unclear. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the end of July maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. In July, the US non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a slowing labor market; July CPI year-on-year remained unchanged, below expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices saw a slight decline in the overnight session, with a bearish candlestick on the daily chart. There is selling pressure above, and short-term signs of weakening are present, suggesting a potential pullback trend. During the day, short-selling opportunities can be attempted, with timely profit-taking on dips. From a larger perspective, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper resistance level is around 3380-3400, while the lower support level is around 3300-3310.

Viewpoint: Short-term pullback; during the day, high short opportunities can be attempted, with timely profit-taking.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the August OPEC monthly report, the global oil demand growth forecast for this year was maintained, with a slight upward adjustment to the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next year, while raising the global oil supply growth forecast for the same period. The July EIA monthly report slightly raised the crude oil price forecast for this year. At the end of July, the OPEC ministerial meeting did not propose any policy recommendations. In early August, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, exiting the current round of production cuts a year early. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, with considerable data volatility.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil futures rose slightly in the overnight session, closing with a bullish candlestick on the daily chart, approaching a support area below. There may be selling pressure at the current position, and it could continue to test the support area below, presenting a potential short opportunity for timely profit. Overall, the crude oil market is in a range-bound adjustment at the support area, with prices continuously testing the support area, and no significant stabilization signals have emerged yet. The minor resistance area is around 64-65, while the support area is around 61-62.

Viewpoint: The market is weak and volatile; short opportunities can be attempted during the day, with timely profit-taking on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with the inflation outlook generally in line with expectations, though future uncertainties exist due to unclear tariff policies and trade conditions. The Eurozone economy remains resilient, but economic growth is leaning towards downside risks. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also maintained rates unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. The preliminary manufacturing PMI values for the Eurozone and major economies showed little change, generally in line with expectations. The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July fell short of expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in the labor market.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price fell slightly in the overnight session, closing with a bearish candlestick on the daily chart, entering a small cycle of adjustment. There may be support at the current position, so attention should be paid to stabilization signals, with attempts for short-term long opportunities during the day and timely profit-taking on highs. Overall, there is a large-scale upward structure, but the daily chart has not been able to create new highs, so caution is warranted regarding potential weakening risks. The resistance area above is around 1.1750-1.1780, while the support area below is around 1.1600-1.1630.

Viewpoint: The market is strong and volatile; small cycle upward adjustments can be attempted for short-term long opportunities, with timely profit-taking.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.