HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0512

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	Economic and trade officials from China and the U.S. held talks in Switzerland and jointly issued a statement.	★★★
07:50	Japan’s March trade balance	★★★
21:00	U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on prescription drugs and drug prices at the White House.	★★★
22:25	Federal Reserve Governor Quarles delivers a speech.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	99-100	103-104
Gold	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	3230-3260	3370-3400
Crude Oil	Short-term rebound	57-58	65-66
Euro	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	1.0950-1.1000	1.1280-1.1320

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks. The April non-farm data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The March unadjusted CPI year-on-year slightly decreased, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts. Attention is on Tuesday’s April unadjusted CPI year-on-year.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continued its rebound last week, with daily fluctuations moving upward, indicating signs of strengthening, and there may still be upward space. The short-term trend remains fluctuating with a slight upward bias, primarily focusing on buying on dips. Overall, prices are at relatively low levels, with daily fluctuations indicating potential for a rebound. The upper resistance area is around 103-104, while the lower support area is around 99-100.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, the market may show signs of stabilization, focusing on buying on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and uncertainties exist in the Eastern European situation. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision maintained rates, the labor market remained resilient, short-term inflation rose slightly, and the balance sheet reduction plan continues, with increasing economic downside risks. The U.S. April non-farm data showed job growth exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. U.S. tariff policies may stimulate gold’s safe-haven attributes. Attention is on the U.S. April CPI year-on-year.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices slightly rebounded in Friday’s night session, with the short cycle encountering resistance and retreating. The upper selling pressure is evident, and prices are testing the current support area again. In the short term, fluctuations are possible; if this structure is broken, the market may weaken further, and high short opportunities can be attempted for timely profit. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure is maintained, but the previous high resistance level has not been significantly broken, with daily fluctuations at high levels. The upper resistance level is around 3370-3400, while the lower support level is around 3230-3260.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight downward bias, high short opportunities can be attempted while also monitoring the effectiveness of the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global crude oil demand expectations for this year and next, while slightly lowering the U.S. crude oil production for this year and next. The April OPEC monthly report slightly lowered the global economic growth expectations for this year and next, as well as the global crude oil demand growth expectations for this year and next; the IEA monthly report lowered the global oil demand growth expectations for 2025. At the beginning of May, the OPEC+ member countries’ meeting will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increase for the second consecutive month. There is uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, which may affect the demand side. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil experienced a significant rebound last week, with prices at relatively low levels, showing a daily upward fluctuation, and there may still be room for further rebound. In the short term, one can try to take advantage of pullbacks for low long opportunities. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with a rebound occurring at low levels, but there are no signs of a major stabilization yet. The upper pressure area is around 65-66, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, prices are at relatively low levels, try to take advantage of pullbacks for low long opportunities.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced. The monetary policy stance will be dynamically adjusted based on data and assessed gradually, with attention to trade situations. In May, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a resilient labor market, a short-term rise in inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, while economic downside risks have increased. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in April slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the March CPI annual rate slightly decreased. The manufacturing PMI values in major Eurozone countries showed little change in April.

Technical Analysis:

The euro showed weak performance last week, with small cycles fluctuating downward. It opened slightly lower in the early morning today, and there may be selling pressure above. In the short term, one can pay attention to rebound short opportunities for timely profit. Overall, the large cycle is showing a high-level fluctuation and retreat, and it may enter a correction in the short term, with no signs of a stop in the decline yet. The upper pressure area is around 1.1280-1.1320, while the lower support area is around 1.0950-1.1000.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, small cycles show signs of weakening, pay attention to rebound short opportunities.

*Pre-market viewpoints are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment involves risks, and trading requires caution.