HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0513

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	U.S. President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16.	★★★
07:50	The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from the April monetary policy meeting.	★★★
14:00	UK March three-month ILO unemployment rate	★★★
	UK April unemployment rate	★★★
	UK April jobless claims	★★★
17:00	Germany May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	★★★
	Eurozone May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	★★★
18:00	U.S. April NFIB Small Business Confidence Index	★★★
20:30	U.S. April unadjusted CPI year-on-year	★★★★★
	U.S. April seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month	★★★★
	U.S. April seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month	★★★
	U.S. April unadjusted core CPI year-on-year	★★★
23:00	Bank of England Governor Bailey will give a speech.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	99-100	103-104
Gold	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	3200-3220	3300-3330
Crude Oil	Short-term rebound	57-58	65-66
Euro	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	1.0950-1.1000	1.1250-1.1300

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. The April non-farm data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The March unadjusted CPI year-on-year slightly decreased, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts. Attention is on the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for April on Tuesday.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index surged significantly yesterday, with strong performance in the short term and no signs of weakening. There may still be upward space to the resistance level above, maintaining a fluctuating upward trend in the short term, primarily focusing on buying on dips. Overall, prices are at relatively low levels, with daily fluctuations and consolidations, possibly leading to a rebound. The upper resistance area is around 103-104, while the lower support area is around 99-100.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, there may still be upward space, primarily focusing on buying on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and there is uncertainty in the situation in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in April saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. In May, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, the labor market remained robust, short-term inflation rose slightly, and the balance sheet reduction plan continued, increasing the risk of economic downturn. In April, the U.S. non-farm payroll data showed that the number of new jobs exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. U.S. tariff policies may stimulate the safe-haven attributes of gold. Attention is on the U.S. April CPI year-on-year rate.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices fell sharply yesterday, closing with a large bearish candle on the daily chart, currently near a support area, and may show short-term fluctuations. If there are short positions, consider reducing them at lower levels for profit, and pay attention to whether this structure will break down, as the market may weaken further at that time. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure is maintained, but the previous high resistance level has not been significantly broken, with daily fluctuations at high levels. The upper resistance level is around 3300-3330, while the lower support level is around 3200-3220.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a weak bias, it may be worth trying high short opportunities while paying attention to the effectiveness of the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global crude oil demand expectations for this and next year, slightly lowering the U.S. crude oil production for this and next year. The April OPEC monthly report slightly lowered the global economic growth expectations for this and next year and reduced the global crude oil demand growth expectations for this and next year; the IEA monthly report lowered the global oil demand growth expectations for 2025. At the beginning of May, the OPEC+ member countries’ meeting will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. There is uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, which may affect the demand side. Attention is on the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil continued its rebound yesterday, with a small cycle peaking and then retreating, facing selling pressure at higher levels. Prices are at relatively low levels, with short-term bulls slightly favored, and there may still be room for a rebound, so it may be worth trying to buy on dips. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with a low-level fluctuation rebound, and has not yet shown signs of significant stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 65-66, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, prices are at relatively low levels, consider trying to buy on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in April saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening, relying on data, assessing successively, and dynamically adjusting the monetary policy stance, while paying attention to trade situations. In May, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, the labor market remained robust, short-term inflation rose slightly, and the balance sheet reduction plan continued, increasing the risk of economic downturn. The U.S. April non-farm employment figures slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the March CPI year-on-year rate slightly decreased. The manufacturing PMI values of major Eurozone countries showed little change in April.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price saw a significant decline yesterday, closing with a large bearish candle on the daily chart, with weak performance in the small cycle and selling pressure at higher levels. Short-term attention is on rebound high short opportunities, and consider reducing positions at lower levels for profit. Overall, from a larger cycle perspective, there is a high-level fluctuation and retreat, and it may enter a correction in the short term, with no signs of a stop in the decline. The upper pressure area is around 1.1250-1.1300, while the lower support area is around 1.0950-1.1000.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a weak bias, there may still be downward space, pay attention to rebound high short opportunities.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.