HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0514

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	OPEC releases monthly oil market report	★★★
04:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 9	★★★
14:00	Germany’s April CPI final value	★★★
17:15	Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks on “Central Bank Research”	★★★
21:10	Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks on economic outlook	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 9	★★★★
	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending May 9	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 9	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	99-100	103-104
Gold	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	3200-3220	3300-3330
Crude Oil	Short-term rebound	57-58	65-66
Euro	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	1.0950-1.1000	1.1250-1.1300

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In April, non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The year-on-year CPI for April, not seasonally adjusted, showed a slight decline, and expectations for interest rate cuts have increased.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index fell slightly yesterday, undergoing a small cycle adjustment, which did not change the upward structure. The short-term outlook remains slightly strong, waiting for stabilization signals, primarily focusing on buying on dips. Overall, prices are at relatively low levels, with daily fluctuations indicating potential for a rebound. The upper resistance area is around 103-104, while the lower support area is around 99-100.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, focus on stabilization signals in the small cycle, primarily adopting a buy-on-dips strategy.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and there is uncertainty in the Eastern European situation. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision marked the sixth consecutive 25 basis point cut, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision maintained rates, the labor market remained resilient, short-term inflation rose slightly, and the balance sheet reduction plan continues, with increasing economic downside risks. The U.S. April non-farm payroll data showed job growth exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for April showed a moderate decline. The U.S. tariff policy is trending towards easing, which may temper gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price fluctuated slightly yesterday, closing with a small bullish candlestick on the daily chart. It is currently near a support area, with no signs of stabilization. If there are short positions, consider reducing them to take profits on dips, and pay attention to whether this structure will break down, as the market may further weaken at that time. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure is maintained, but the previous high resistance level has not been significantly broken, leading to high-level fluctuations on the daily chart. The upper resistance level is around 3300-3330, while the lower support level is around 3200-3220.

Opinion: The market is weak with fluctuations, and it may be worth trying to find short opportunities while also monitoring whether the support area will break.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global oil demand expectations for this year and next, with a slight downward adjustment to U.S. oil production for the same period. The April OPEC monthly report slightly lowered the global economic growth expectations for this year and next, as well as the global oil demand growth expectations for the same period. The IEA monthly report has lowered the global oil demand growth expectations for 2025. The OPEC+ member countries’ meeting in early May will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. There is uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, which may affect demand. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently shown strong performance, with daily fluctuations trending upward and no signs of weakening. The short-term bullish sentiment is dominant, and there may still be room for further increases. Look for opportunities to buy on dips and take profits on highs. Overall, crude oil had previously shown weak performance, with a rebound occurring at low levels, but there are still no signs of significant stabilization. The upper resistance area is around 65-66, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Opinion: There is a short-term rebound, and prices are at relatively low levels, so consider trying to buy on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. The bank relies on data, evaluates it gradually, and dynamically adjusts its monetary policy stance while paying attention to trade situations. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision remains unchanged, with a resilient labor market and a short-term rise in inflation, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan amid increasing economic downturn risks. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in April slightly exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the April CPI year-on-year showed a moderate decline. The manufacturing PMI values in major Eurozone countries showed little change in April.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rebounded slightly yesterday, but the strength was average. Be cautious of potential selling pressure above and pay attention to the resistance area. In the short term, still focus on short opportunities and take profits on dips. Overall, from a larger cycle perspective, there is high-level fluctuation and a potential correction in the short term, with no signs of a bottoming out. The upper resistance area is around 1.1250-1.1300, while the lower support area is around 1.0950-1.1000.

Opinion: The market is weak with fluctuations, and there is a short-term rebound, so pay attention to short opportunities during the rebound.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.