HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0522

Time	Data and Events	Importance
15:15	France May Manufacturing PMI Preliminary	★★★
15:30	Germany May Manufacturing PMI Preliminary	★★★
16:00	Germany May IFO Business Climate Index	★★★
	Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI Preliminary	★★★
16:30	UK May Manufacturing PMI Final	★★★
	UK May Services PMI Final	★★★
18:00	UK May CBI Industrial Orders Balance	★★★
19:30	European Central Bank releases minutes of April monetary policy meeting	★★★
20:30	US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 17	★★★★
21:45	US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Preliminary	★★★
	US May S&P Global Services PMI Preliminary	★★★
22:00	US April Existing Home Sales Annualized	★★★
22:30	US EIA Natural Gas Inventory for the week ending May 16	★★★
Next Day 02:00	FOMC Permanent Voting Member Williams delivers keynote speech at monetary policy implementation seminar	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Weak oscillation	99-100	103-104
Gold	Oscillation rebound	3220-3250	3350-3380
Crude Oil	Strong oscillation	57-58	64-65
Euro	Oscillation rebound	1.1180-1.1200	1.1350-1.1380

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In April, non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The year-on-year CPI in April showed a slight decline, raising expectations for future rate cuts; April retail data performed poorly but was slightly better than expected.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index has continued to decline recently, with a weak performance in the short cycle and no signs of a rebound. In the short term, it may test previous low support levels, and there is a risk of further weakening in the market. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support area below. Overall, after a slight rebound on the daily chart, there are signs of returning to a weak trend, with prices at relatively low levels, likely in a fluctuating structure. The resistance area is around 103-104, while the support area is around 99-100.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, pay attention to the effectiveness of the previous low support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and there is uncertainty in the situation in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in April saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. In May, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a resilient labor market, a short-term rise in inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, increasing the risk of economic downturn. In April, U.S. non-farm data showed that the number of new jobs exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for April saw a moderate decline. The U.S. tariff policy is becoming more relaxed, which may temper the safe-haven attributes of gold.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices continued to rise yesterday, showing strong performance in the short term, currently approaching an important resistance level. If there are long positions, consider taking profits at highs and pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance level. If there is a clear breakthrough, the market may strengthen further. From a larger perspective, the daily chart shows a high-level oscillation structure, with strong rebounds in the short term, so watch for sustainability. The upper resistance level is around 3350-3380, and the lower support level is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Oscillating rebound, strong performance in the short term. If there are long positions, consider taking profits at highs and pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance level.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global oil demand forecast for this and next year, slightly lowering the U.S. oil production forecast for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next year while lowering the economic growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of May, the OPEC+ member countries’ meeting will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. There is uncertainty in U.S. tariff policy, which may affect demand. EIA crude oil inventories increased slightly, with a loose supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil prices fell slightly yesterday, failing to break through the upper resistance level, but there is also support below. The short-term may see multiple tests of the resistance level, and the market may be in a sideways structure. It is possible to try short-term long opportunities and take profits in a timely manner. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with repeated oscillations at low levels, and there are no signs of a significant stabilization yet. The upper resistance area is around 64-65, and the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a slight upward bias, consider short-term long strategies, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to whether the resistance structure can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in April saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. The monetary policy stance is adjusted dynamically based on data and assessed in stages, with attention to trade situations. In May, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a resilient labor market, a short-term rise in inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, increasing the risk of economic downturn. In April, the number of new jobs in the U.S. non-farm sector slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for April saw a moderate decline. Attention is on the Eurozone’s May manufacturing PMI value this Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price continued to rebound yesterday, showing a strong performance in the short term, currently still near the resistance level, which may lead to oscillation. If there is a clear upward breakthrough, the market may strengthen further. In the short term, consider low long opportunities and take profits at highs. Overall, there are signs of stabilization after a pullback, with a daily oscillation moving upward, so pay attention to the pressure structure. The upper resistance area is around 1.1350-1.1380, and the lower support area is around 1.1180-1.1200.

Viewpoint: Oscillating rebound, with signs of strengthening in the market. Pay attention to whether the resistance level can be broken upward.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.