HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0523

Time	Data and Events	Importance
07:01	UK May Gfk Consumer Confidence Index	★★★
07:30	Japan April Core CPI Year-on-Year	★★★
14:00	Germany Q1 Seasonally Adjusted GDP Year-on-Year Final	★★★
	UK April Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Month-on-Month	★★★
20:30	Canada March Retail Sales Month-on-Month	★★★
21:35	2025 FOMC voting members Musalem and Schmidt participate in a fireside chat event hosted by the St. Louis Fed in Arkansas to discuss the economy and monetary policy.	★★★
22:00	US April New Home Sales Annualized Total	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Fluctuating Weak	99-100	103-104
Gold	Fluctuating Rebound	3220-3250	3350-3380
Crude Oil	Fluctuating Weak	57-58	64-65
Euro	Fluctuating Rebound	1.1180-1.1200	1.1350-1.1380

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks. The impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. The April non-farm data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The April unadjusted CPI year-on-year decreased slightly, raising expectations for future rate cuts; April retail data performed poorly but was slightly better than expected.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index rebounded slightly yesterday, with small cycles showing fluctuations and no signs of stabilization yet. The short-term performance remains weak, and it may test previous low support levels. Caution is advised regarding the risk of further weakening, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support area below. Overall, after a slight rebound on the daily chart, signs of weakness have resumed, with prices at relatively low levels, likely indicating a fluctuating structure. The upper resistance area is around 103-104, while the lower support area is around 99-100.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating weak, pay attention to the effectiveness of the previous low support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced. The May Federal Reserve interest rate decision maintained rates, with a resilient labor market and a slight rise in short-term inflation, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan, while economic downside risks increased. The US April non-farm data showed job growth exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the April unadjusted CPI year-on-year showed a moderate decline. The US tariff policy is trending towards easing, which may temper the safe-haven attributes of gold.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price slightly retreated yesterday, approaching a resistance level, showing signs of encountering obstacles. In the short term, it may continue to test the resistance structure, with a high probability of fluctuations. If there are long positions, consider taking profits at highs and pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance level. If there is a clear breakthrough, the market may strengthen further. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows a high-level fluctuation structure, while the short cycle has a strong rebound, so we should pay attention to whether it can be sustained. The upper resistance level is around 3350-3380, and the lower support level is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound; if there are long positions, consider taking profits at highs and pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance level.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global oil demand expectations for this and next year, slightly lowering the U.S. oil production for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next year while lowering the economic growth expectations for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth expectations for 2025. The OPEC+ member countries’ meeting in early May will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies may affect the demand side. EIA crude oil inventories have slightly increased, and the supply-demand structure is relatively loose.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil continued to retreat slightly yesterday, with a bearish candle on the daily chart. There is selling pressure above, and it may test the support area below. Short selling opportunities can be attempted, and profits should be taken in a timely manner. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance recently, with repeated fluctuations at low levels, and has not yet shown signs of significant stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 64-65, and the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations; it may test the support area below, and short selling opportunities can be attempted.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat strengthening. The monetary policy stance will be dynamically adjusted based on data and assessed gradually, with attention to trade situations. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision remains unchanged, with a resilient labor market and a slight rise in short-term inflation, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan, while the risk of economic downturn increases. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in April slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the April CPI year-on-year showed a moderate decline. The Eurozone’s May manufacturing PMI showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price retreated yesterday, showing signs of resistance above. The night session tested the neckline support, and in the short term, it may continue to test the resistance area. If there are long positions, consider taking profits at highs and pay attention to whether the resistance level can be broken. Overall, there are signs of stabilization after the pullback, with a daily upward fluctuation, so we should pay attention to the resistance structure. The upper resistance area is around 1.1350-1.1380, and the lower support area is around 1.1180-1.1200.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound; take profits on long positions at highs and pay attention to whether the resistance level can break upward.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.