HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0529

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	Bank of England Governor Bailey delivers a speech at the annual dinner of the Irish Investment Managers Association.	★★★
04:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 23.	★★★
20:30	Canada’s current account for the first quarter.	★★★
	U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 24.	★★★★
	U.S. first quarter annualized GDP growth rate revision.	★★★
22:00	U.S. April pending home sales index month-on-month.	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending May 23.	★★★
Next day 00:00	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 23.	★★★★
	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending May 23.	★★★
	U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending May 23.	★★★
Next day 02:00	Federal Reserve Governor Cook delivers the opening remarks at the 5th Annual Federal Reserve Macro-Financial Online Seminar.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Volatile rebound	97-98	101-102
Gold	Volatile pullback	3220-3250	3350-3370
Crude oil	Volatile strength	57-58	64-65
Euro	Short-term volatility	1.1300-1.1330	1.1400-1.1420

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In April, non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The April unadjusted CPI year-on-year decreased slightly, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts. Attention is on the core PCE price index on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continued its rebound yesterday, with small cycles showing a volatile upward trend. Prices have retraced near previous lows, showing good support. In the short term, attention can be paid to stabilization signals, which may lead to a rebound. Overall, the daily trend is weak, with prices at relatively low levels, so watch for the possibility of new lows. The upper resistance area is around 101-102, while the lower support area is around 97-98.

Viewpoint: Volatile rebound, prices have not broken previous lows, and there are signs of stabilization in small cycles.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in April saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. In May, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a resilient labor market, a slight increase in short-term inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, leading to increased economic downside risks. In April, the U.S. non-farm payroll data showed that the number of new jobs exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for April saw a moderate decline. The U.S. tariff policy is becoming more relaxed, which may temper the safe-haven attributes of gold.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices continued to decline during the day, with weak performance in the short cycle. Currently, it is testing an important support area, and there may be a rebound, but there is also selling pressure above, leading to potential short-term fluctuations. From a longer-term perspective, the daily chart shows a high-level consolidation structure, with prices encountering resistance and retreating, indicating possible selling pressure above. The upper resistance level is around 3350-3370, while the lower support level is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating and correcting; if there are short positions, consider reducing them at lower levels to take profits, and pay attention to the effectiveness of the support structure.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report maintains the global oil demand forecast for this and next year, with a slight downward adjustment to U.S. oil production for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next year while lowering the economic growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set the 2025 oil production level as the benchmark for 2027 and will hold another round of negotiations in early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report early Friday morning.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil saw a slight increase yesterday, with a short-term upward fluctuation. It may test the resistance level in the short term, and there may be opportunities to buy on dips while taking profits at highs, while also monitoring whether the resistance level can be broken. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with repeated fluctuations at low levels, and there are no significant signs of stabilization at a higher level yet. The upper resistance area is around 64-65, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias; consider short-term buying strategies and monitor whether the resistance level can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in April saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening, relying on data, assessing successively, and dynamically adjusting monetary policy stance while paying attention to trade situations. In May, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a resilient labor market, a slight increase in short-term inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, leading to increased economic downside risks. The U.S. non-farm payroll employment in April slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for April saw a moderate decline. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI in May showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price experienced a significant decline, with weak performance in the short cycle. It is currently in an important support area, and there may be a rebound; during the day, short-term buying opportunities can be attempted to take profits in a timely manner. If it breaks below this structure, the trend will continue to weaken. Overall, the daily chart shows a fluctuating decline, leaning towards a consolidation structure, with attention to the effectiveness of the support area. The upper resistance area is around 1.1400-1.1420, while the lower support area is around 1.1300-1.1330.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations; attempt short-term buying opportunities during the day and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.