HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0605

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	Saudi Aramco announces official crude oil prices around the 5th of each month.	★★★
13:45	Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May.	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s PPI month-on-month for April.	★★★
19:30	U.S. Challenger job cuts for May.	★★★
20:15	Eurozone’s ECB deposit facility rate until June 5.	★★★★
	Eurozone’s ECB main refinancing rate until June 5.	★★★
20:30	U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31.	★★★★
	U.S. trade balance for April.	★★★
20:45	ECB President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference.	★★★
22:00	U.S. global supply chain pressure index for May.	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending May 30.	★★★
Next day 00:00	Federal Reserve Governor Cook speaks at the New York Economic Club.	★★★
Next day 01:30	2026 FOMC voting member Harker speaks on economic outlook.	★★★
	2025 FOMC voting member Schmidt speaks on banking policy.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term fluctuations	97-98	101-102
Gold	Fluctuating with a bullish bias	3280-3300	3400-3430
Crude oil	Short-term fluctuations	57-58	64-65
Euro	Fluctuating with a bullish bias	1.1320-1.1350	1.1550-1.1580

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate stabilized; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In April, non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year for April slightly decreased, raising expectations for future rate cuts. Attention is on Friday’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index fell slightly yesterday, showing a recent fluctuating structure, with prices testing previous low areas, not yet significantly breaking down, but also not showing a major stabilization. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating trend. Overall, the daily trend is weak, with prices at relatively low levels, and attention should be paid to whether prices will create new lows. The upper resistance area is around 101-102, while the lower support area is around 97-98.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, with prices at relatively low levels, and no stabilization signals have appeared yet.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and the situation in Eastern Europe remains unstable. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. In May, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, the labor market remained robust, short-term inflation rose slightly, and the balance sheet reduction plan continued, increasing the risk of economic downturn. In April, the U.S. non-farm payroll data showed that the number of new jobs exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year in April saw a moderate decline. Attention is on the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday and the U.S. non-farm data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices rose slightly yesterday, with the short-term cycle testing resistance levels; caution is advised regarding the risk of a pullback. If there are long positions, consider taking profits at highs and watch for a significant breakthrough of previous highs. From a longer-term perspective, the daily chart shows a high-level consolidation structure with no signs of weakening, and it may test resistance levels. The upper resistance level is around 3400-3430, while the lower support level is around 3280-3300.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, consider buying on dips and taking profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report maintains the global oil demand forecast for this and next year, with a slight downward adjustment to U.S. oil production for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast for this year while lowering the economic growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations scheduled for early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. EIA crude oil inventories have significantly decreased, indicating a tight supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil prices rose slightly yesterday but fell back, with the short-term cycle testing resistance levels multiple times without a clear breakthrough. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating structure, and there may be opportunities for short-term long positions to take profits promptly, while also watching if prices can break through; if so, the market may strengthen. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with repeated fluctuations at low levels and no significant signs of stabilization. The upper resistance area is around 64-65, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations with a slight bullish bias; watch for a potential breakthrough of the resistance structure.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The ECB’s April interest rate decision saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening, relying on data for gradual assessment and dynamic adjustment of monetary policy stance. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision remained unchanged, the labor market remained robust, short-term inflation rose slightly, and the balance sheet reduction plan continued, increasing the risk of economic downturn. The U.S. April non-farm employment figures slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the CPI year-on-year in April saw a moderate decline. The Eurozone’s May manufacturing PMI showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact. Attention is on the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose slightly in the overnight market, showing a strong performance in the short term; caution is advised regarding selling pressure above. If there are long positions, consider taking profits at highs, while still focusing on buying on dips in the short term and watching if prices can reach new highs. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward consolidation, potentially testing previous high resistance levels. The upper resistance area is around 1.1550-1.1580, while the lower support area is around 1.1320-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias; consider trying long opportunities on dips and taking profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.