HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0609

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8 to 13 and held the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism.	★★★
07:50	Japan’s April trade balance	★★★
22:00	US April wholesale sales month-on-month	★★★
23:00	US May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Pressure range
US Dollar Index	Short-term fluctuations	97-98	101-102
Gold	High-level fluctuations	3280-3300	3400-3430
Crude Oil	Fluctuations biased towards strength	62-63	69-70
Euro	Fluctuations biased towards strength	1.1320-1.1350	1.1550-1.1580

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continued, short-term inflation rose slightly, long-term inflation was in line with expectations, and the economy was in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, basically in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a resilient labor market. The year-on-year CPI for April, not seasonally adjusted, slightly decreased, and expectations for interest rate cuts in the future have risen. Attention is on the year-on-year CPI for May, not seasonally adjusted.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index showed a fluctuating structure last week, with prices near previous lows, not having significantly broken down. The daily line is in a horizontal fluctuation, with no signs of major stabilization yet. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating structure, focusing on changes in small cycle candlesticks. Overall, the daily line shows a weak fluctuation, with prices at relatively low levels, and attention should be paid to whether prices will create new lows. The upper pressure area is around 101-102, and the lower support area is around 97-98.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, prices at relatively low levels, with no stabilization signals yet.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and the situation in Eastern Europe is turbulent. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, and lowered inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision maintained rates, the labor market remained resilient, short-term inflation rose slightly, and the balance sheet reduction plan continued, with increasing economic downside risks. The US May non-farm data showed a slight decline in new jobs, with the unemployment rate unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for April, not seasonally adjusted, showed a moderate decline. Attention is on the US May year-on-year CPI, not seasonally adjusted.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices fell sharply in Friday’s night session, with small cycles showing weakness, and there is selling pressure above. Currently, it is close to the support area, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support. If it breaks down, the market may weaken. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily line shows a high-level fluctuation structure, with no signs of weakening yet, and it may test the pressure level. The upper pressure level is around 3400-3430, and the lower support level is around 3280-3300.

Viewpoint: High-level fluctuations, near the support area, pay attention to whether stabilization signals appear.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global crude oil demand expectations for this year and next, while slightly lowering the crude oil production forecast for the U.S. for this year and next. The OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, but lowers the economic growth forecast for this year. The IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set the 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations scheduled for early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. EIA crude oil inventories have significantly decreased, indicating a tight supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil performed well last week, with daily fluctuations trending upward, showing signs of breaking through resistance levels, and the market may strengthen. In the short term, focus on buying on dips and reducing holdings to take profits at highs. Overall, crude oil has shown relatively weak performance previously, with repeated fluctuations at low levels, and has not yet shown signs of a significant stabilization. The upper resistance area is around 69-70, while the lower support area is around 62-63.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, focus on buying on dips in the short term and reducing holdings to take profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a continuous 25 basis point rate cut for the seventh time, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. It lowered inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as the GDP growth forecast for next year, due to trade upgrades leading to slower economic growth and inflation. In May, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a resilient labor market, a short-term rise in inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, while economic downside risks have increased. The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in May showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact. Attention is on the U.S. May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate.

Technical Analysis:

The euro experienced a pullback last Friday, with a small cycle of downward fluctuations, currently approaching the lower support area. In the short term, it may be slightly volatile, focusing on the effectiveness of the support. If it breaks below this structure, the market may weaken. Overall, the daily trend is upward, potentially testing previous high resistance levels. The upper resistance area is around 1.1550-1.1580, while the lower support area is around 1.1320-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, small cycle pullback, focus on the effectiveness of the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.