HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0610

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:00	UK April three-month ILO unemployment rate	★★★
	UK May unemployment rate	★★★
	UK May jobless claims	★★★
15:00	Switzerland May consumer confidence index	★★★
16:30	Eurozone June Sentix investor confidence index	★★★
18:00	US May NFIB small business confidence index	★★★
Next day 00:00	EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	Short-term fluctuations	97-98	101-102
Gold	High-level fluctuations	3280-3300	3400-3430
Crude Oil	Fluctuations biased towards strength	62-63	69-70
Euro	Fluctuations biased towards strength	1.1320-1.1350	1.1550-1.1580

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, roughly in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for April slightly decreased, and expectations for interest rate cuts have risen. Attention is on the unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index slightly retreated yesterday, with a short-term oscillation; prices are near previous lows and have not significantly broken down. The daily line shows horizontal oscillation, and it may maintain an oscillation structure in the short term, focusing on changes in the small cycle candlestick. Overall, the daily line is oscillating weakly, with prices at relatively low levels, so watch for whether prices will create new lows. The upper resistance area is around 101-102, and the lower support area is around 97-98.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, prices are at relatively low levels, and no stabilization signals have appeared yet.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable. The ECB’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with downward revisions to inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision maintained rates, the labor market remained resilient, short-term inflation rose, and the balance sheet reduction plan continues, with increasing economic downside risks. The US May non-farm data showed a slight decline in new jobs, with the unemployment rate unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for April showed a moderate decline. Attention is on the unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices rebounded slightly yesterday, with signs of resistance in the short cycle; there may be selling pressure above, and caution is advised regarding the risk of a market pullback. In the short term, one can attempt short positions for profit. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily line shows a high-level oscillation structure, and caution is advised regarding selling pressure, with future attention on the breakout direction. The upper resistance level is around 3400-3430, and the lower support level is around 3280-3300.

Viewpoint: High-level oscillation, short positions can be attempted for timely profits.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global crude oil demand expectations for this year and next, while slightly lowering the crude oil production forecast for the U.S. for this year and next. The OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, but lowers the economic growth forecast for this year. The IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set the 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations scheduled for early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. Attention is on the EIA monthly report and EIA crude oil inventory.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil daily lines continue to close with gains, showing a relatively strong performance recently. After breaking through the resistance level, it opens up upward space, and the short-term structure may continue to be strong, focusing on opportunities to buy on dips and reducing holdings to take profits at highs. Overall, crude oil had a relatively weak performance earlier, with repeated fluctuations at low levels, and signs of stabilization at the daily level. The upper pressure area is around 69-70, while the lower support area is around 62-63.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias, focus on buying on dips and taking profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a continuous seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. It lowered inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as the GDP growth forecast for next year, with trade upgrades leading to slower economic growth and inflation. In May, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a resilient labor market, a short-term rise in inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, while economic downside risks are increasing. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for May showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact. Attention is on the U.S. May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price has slightly increased during the day, with small cycles showing an upward trend, but there are signs of slowing bullish momentum, and there may be selling pressure above. In the short term, it still attempts a buy-on-dips strategy, taking profits in a timely manner, and paying attention to whether the small cycle can create new highs; otherwise, be wary of the risk of a pullback. Overall, the daily line shows an upward trend, potentially testing previous high resistance levels. The upper pressure area is around 1.1550-1.1580, while the lower support area is around 1.1320-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias, short-term buying strategy, take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.