HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0611

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 6	★★★
20:30	U.S. May unadjusted CPI year-on-year	★★★★★
	U.S. May seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month	★★★★
	U.S. May seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month	★★★
	U.S. May unadjusted core CPI year-on-year	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending June 6	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory for the week ending June 6	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending June 6	★★★
Next day 01:00	U.S. 10-year Treasury auction – winning yield for the week ending June 11	★★★
	U.S. 10-year Treasury auction – bid-to-cover ratio for the week ending June 11	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term fluctuations	97-98	101-102
Gold	High-level fluctuations	3280-3300	3400-3430
Crude oil	Fluctuations biased towards strength	62-63	69-70
Euro	Fluctuations biased towards strength	1.1320-1.1350	1.1550-1.1580

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In early May, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, roughly in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year for April slightly decreased, raising expectations for future rate cuts. Attention is on the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently maintained a fluctuating structure, with slight consolidation on the daily chart and intense competition in the short cycle. Prices are near previous lows without a significant breakdown; if a stabilization signal appears, the market may strengthen. Overall, the daily chart shows a fluctuating structure, with prices at relatively low levels, so watch for whether prices will create new lows. The upper resistance area is around 101-102, while the lower support area is around 97-98.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, with prices at relatively low levels and no stabilization signals yet.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marks the seventh consecutive 25 basis point cut, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with downward revisions to inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision maintained rates, the labor market remained resilient, short-term inflation rose slightly, and the balance sheet reduction plan continues, with increasing economic downside risks. The U.S. May non-farm data showed a slight decline in new jobs, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for April showed a moderate decrease. Attention is on the U.S. May unadjusted CPI year-on-year.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price has recently experienced slight fluctuations, with the support area not being broken. A rebound is possible in the short term, and one can attempt short-term long opportunities during the day, while taking profits in a timely manner. Attention should also be paid to whether the price in the small cycle can reach new highs. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows a high-level fluctuation structure, and caution should be exercised regarding selling pressure, with future attention on the direction of the breakout. The upper pressure level is around 3400-3430, while the lower support level is around 3280-3300.

Viewpoint: High-level fluctuations may lead to a rebound; attempt short-term long opportunities during the day and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The June EIA monthly report slightly raised the crude oil price forecast for this year and next. The May OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, while lowering the economic growth forecast for this year; the IEA report slightly raised the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to use the 2025 oil production level as a benchmark for 2027 and will hold another round of negotiations in early June, possibly reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. Attention should be paid to the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently shown a strong performance, with daily fluctuations trending upward, and a slight retreat during the night session. Attention should be paid to signs of stabilization in the small cycle, and short-term attempts to buy on dips should be made, while taking profits on highs. Overall, crude oil had previously shown weak performance, with repeated fluctuations at low levels, but there are signs of stabilization on the daily chart. The upper pressure area is around 69-70, while the lower support area is around 62-63.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations are biased towards strength; pay attention to buying on dips and taking profits on highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a 25 basis point cut for the seventh consecutive time, with the rate-cutting cycle nearing its end. There has been no discussion on neutral interest rates, and inflation forecasts for this year and next have been lowered, along with the GDP growth forecast for next year. Trade upgrades have led to a slowdown in economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a resilient labor market, a short-term rise in inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, while the risk of economic downturn has increased. The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in May showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact. Attention should be paid to the U.S. May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price has recently shown a fluctuating structure, with slight horizontal movement on the daily chart. In the short term, bulls have a slight advantage, and attention should be paid to stabilization signals, primarily adopting a short-term long strategy while taking profits on highs. Additionally, attention should be paid to whether the small cycle can reach new highs; otherwise, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of a pullback. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward fluctuation, possibly testing previous high pressure levels. The upper pressure area is around 1.1550-1.1580, while the lower support area is around 1.1320-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations are biased towards strength; adopt a short-term long strategy and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.