HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0612

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:00	UK April three-month GDP month-on-month rate	★★★
	UK April manufacturing output month-on-month rate	★★★
	UK April seasonally adjusted goods trade balance	★★★
	UK April industrial output month-on-month rate	★★★
20:30	US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7	★★★★
	US May PPI year-on-year rate	★★★
	US May PPI month-on-month rate	★★★
22:30	US EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending June 6	★★★
Next day 00:00	Federal Reserve releases the “US Quarterly Financial Accounts Report”	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	Short-term fluctuations	97-98	101-102
Gold	Fluctuating with a bullish bias	3300-3330	3400-3430
Crude oil	Fluctuating with a bullish bias	63-64	69-70
Euro	Fluctuating with a bullish bias	1.1380-1.1400	1.1550-1.1580

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, roughly in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May rose slightly but was below expectations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index fell slightly yesterday, showing weak performance in the short cycle, with no signs of a bottom yet; prices are near previous lows without a significant breakdown, and short-term fluctuations may occur, necessitating caution against further weakening. Overall, the daily structure is fluctuating, with prices at relatively low levels, so watch for whether prices will create new lows. The upper resistance area is around 101-102, while the lower support area is around 97-98.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, with prices at relatively low levels and no signs of stabilization yet.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and the situation in Eastern Europe is unstable. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive 25 basis point cut, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with downward revisions to inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision maintained rates, with a resilient labor market and a slight rise in short-term inflation, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan, while downside risks to the economy are increasing. The US May non-farm data showed a slight decline in job additions, with the unemployment rate unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May showed slight warming.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices rose slightly yesterday, showing a strong performance in the short cycle, with signs of strengthening after two days of continuous fluctuations; short-term may test the upper resistance level, and intraday low-buy opportunities can be attempted, with profit-taking on highs while watching if the resistance level can be broken. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily structure is fluctuating at high levels, so caution against selling pressure is warranted, with future attention on the breakout direction. The upper resistance level is around 3400-3430, while the lower support level is around 3300-3330.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, look for low long opportunities during the day and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The June EIA monthly report slightly raised the crude oil price forecasts for this year and next. The May OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, while lowering the economic growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly raised the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set the 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations expected in early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. EIA crude oil inventories have significantly decreased, tightening the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil surged significantly yesterday, showing strong short-term performance, with prices approaching resistance areas. To prevent a small cycle pullback, if there are long positions, take profits at highs, and watch for low long opportunities on short-term pullbacks. Overall, crude oil has shown relatively weak performance previously, with repeated fluctuations at low levels, and signs of stabilization on the daily chart. The upper resistance area is around 69-70, while the lower support area is around 63-64.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, pay attention to low long opportunities on pullbacks, and take profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a consecutive seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. The inflation forecasts for this year and next have been lowered, along with the GDP growth forecast for next year, as trade upgrades lead to slower economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a resilient labor market, a short-term rise in inflation, and continued balance sheet reduction plans, while economic downside risks have increased. The Eurozone’s May manufacturing PMI showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently shown strong performance, with a significant rise in the night session, creating new highs in the short cycle, and prices approaching previous high resistance levels. Take profits at highs for long positions, as the short-term trend may continue to be strong, while still paying attention to low long opportunities on pullbacks. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward fluctuation, possibly testing previous high resistance levels. The upper resistance area is around 1.1550-1.1580, while the lower support area is around 1.1380-1.1400.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, short-term focus on low long opportunities on pullbacks, and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.