HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0617

Time	Data and Events	Importance
11:31	Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision	★★★
14:30	Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a monetary policy press conference	★★★
16:00	IEA releases monthly oil market report	★★★
17:00	Germany’s June ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	★★★
	Eurozone’s June ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	★★★
20:30	U.S. May retail sales month-on-month	★★★★
	U.S. May import price index month-on-month	★★★
21:15	U.S. May industrial production month-on-month	★★★
22:00	U.S. June NAHB housing market index	★★★
	U.S. April business inventories month-on-month	★★★
Next day 01:30	Bank of Canada releases monetary policy meeting minutes	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak oscillation	96-97	100-100.5
Gold	Strong oscillation	3370-3400	3480-3500
Crude oil	Strong oscillation	68-69	77-78
Euro	Strong oscillation	1.1450-1.1480	1.1650-1.1700

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, roughly in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year in May rose slightly but was below expectations, with a neutral short-term impact. Attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision early Thursday morning.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, closing with a doji candlestick on the daily chart, indicating intense short-term trading with signs of slowing decline, which may lead to a slight rebound, but does not change the larger cycle structure. Overall, it shows a large-scale weak oscillation structure, with a large bearish candle on the weekly chart and a downward oscillation on the daily chart, with prices reaching new lows. The upper resistance area is around 100-100.5, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, with a possible rebound in the short cycle; focus on the upper resistance area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marks the seventh consecutive 25 basis point cut, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision maintained rates, with a resilient labor market, a slight rise in short-term inflation, and continued balance sheet reduction, increasing economic downside risks. The U.S. May non-farm payrolls saw a slight decline in new jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year in May showed slight warming. Attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price underwent a significant correction yesterday, showing signs of resistance above. The short-term performance is relatively weak, currently near the support area, with no signs of a stop in the decline yet. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the support; at that time, one can attempt short-term long opportunities and reduce holdings to take profits at highs. From a longer-term perspective, the daily chart shows a strong oscillation, which may test the pressure near previous highs. The upper resistance level is around 3480-3500, while the lower support level is around 3370-3400.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is relatively strong, short-term correction, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support area, and attempt low long opportunities.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The June EIA monthly report slightly raised the crude oil price forecasts for this year and next. The May OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next but lowered the economic growth forecast for this year; the IEA report slightly raised the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to use the 2025 oil production as a benchmark for 2027 and will hold another round of negotiations in early June, possibly reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. Conflicts in the Middle East may lead to expectations of tighter supply. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil opened high and then fell yesterday, entering a correction in the short term, with selling pressure above, making it unwise to chase highs. Pay attention to the support area below and look for signs of stabilization to stop the decline, primarily focusing on a low long strategy on pullbacks and reducing holdings to take profits at highs. Overall, crude oil has been in a low-level oscillation and consolidation, then broke upward on the daily level, showing signs of a stronger trend. The upper pressure area is around 77-78, while the lower support area is around 68-69.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is relatively strong, reduce holdings to take profits on long positions, and be cautious of short-term corrections.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a continuous seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. The inflation forecasts for this year and next were lowered, along with the GDP growth forecast for next year, as trade upgrades lead to slower economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a resilient labor market, a short-term rise in inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, while economic downside risks have increased. The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in May showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price slightly rose and then fell in the night session, with the short-term not making new highs, and there may be selling pressure above. The short-term outlook remains relatively strong, focusing on whether the price can break upward; otherwise, a fluctuating market may occur, and caution is advised for short-term corrections. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward oscillation, with a strong structure on a larger scale. The upper pressure area is around 1.1650-1.1700, while the lower support area is around 1.1450-1.1480.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is relatively strong, pay attention to the support structure below, attempt low long opportunities on pullbacks, and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.