HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0618

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending June 13	★★★
14:00	UK May CPI Monthly Rate	★★★
	UK May Retail Price Index Monthly Rate	★★★
16:00	Eurozone April Adjusted Current Account	★★★
17:00	Eurozone May CPI Year-on-Year Final Value	★★★
	Eurozone May CPI Month-on-Month Final Value	★★★
20:30	U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 14	★★★★
	U.S. May New Housing Starts Annualized	★★★
	U.S. May Building Permits Total	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending June 13	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending June 13	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory for the week ending June 13	★★★
23:15	Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks on the Canadian economic outlook, inflation trends, and interest rates.	★★★
Next Day 02:00	U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision for June 18	★★★★★
Next Day 02:30	Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference.	★★★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weakly Fluctuating	96-97	100-100.5
Gold	Strongly Fluctuating	3360-3380	3480-3500
Crude Oil	Strongly Fluctuating	68-69	77-78
Euro	Strongly Fluctuating	1.1450-1.1480	1.1650-1.1700

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In early May, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate stabilized; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, which was basically in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a stable labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year in May rose slightly but was below expectations, with a neutral short-term impact. Attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Thursday morning.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded yesterday, closing with a large bullish candle. The current position is at the lower edge of the platform, which may encounter resistance. The larger cycle still indicates a weak fluctuation trend, and attention should be paid to whether the price will create a new low; otherwise, it may turn into a fluctuating rebound trend. Overall, the large-scale weak fluctuation structure shows a large bearish candle on the weekly chart, and the daily chart is fluctuating downward, with prices creating new lows. The upper resistance area is around 100-100.5, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weakly fluctuating, with a small cycle rebound; pay attention to the resistance at the current position. Monitor the impact of the interest rate decision.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a 25 basis point cut for the seventh consecutive time, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision in May, with a resilient labor market, a slight rise in short-term inflation, and continued balance sheet reduction plans, while economic downside risks are increasing. In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls saw a slight decline in new jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for May showed a slight increase. Attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, with minimal volatility, and the decline in the short cycle is slowing down. Currently, it is near a support area and may experience some oscillation. Watch for stabilization signals, at which point low long positions can be attempted, and profits can be taken on highs. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows a strong oscillation, possibly testing resistance near previous highs. The upper resistance level is around 3480-3500, while the lower support level is around 3360-3380.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is slightly strong, with a short cycle correction; pay attention to the effectiveness of the support area. Focus on the interest rate decision.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The June EIA monthly report slightly raised oil price forecasts for this year and next. The May OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, while lowering the economic growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly raised the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations scheduled for early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. Conflicts in the Middle East may lead to tighter supply expectations. Watch for the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently performed strongly, with a short cycle oscillating upward, currently approaching the upper resistance area, where selling pressure may exist. It is not advisable to chase prices; if there are long positions, profits should be taken on highs, and short-term attention should be on whether the pressure level can be broken. Otherwise, a fluctuating market may occur. Overall, crude oil has shown signs of strengthening after a period of low-level oscillation and consolidation, followed by a breakout at the daily level. The upper pressure area is around 77-78, while the lower support area is around 68-69.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is slightly strong; take profits on long positions at highs and be cautious of small-level corrections.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a 25 basis point cut for the seventh consecutive time, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. It lowered inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year, due to trade escalations leading to slower economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision in May, with a resilient labor market, a slight rise in short-term inflation, and continued balance sheet reduction plans, while economic downside risks are increasing. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for May showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact. Attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price continued to decline yesterday, with a short cycle oscillating downward, and there may be selling pressure above. The short-term correction rhythm should be monitored, focusing on the lower support area. If stabilization signals appear, low long positions can be attempted, and profits can be taken on highs. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward oscillation, with a strong structure at a larger level. The upper pressure area is around 1.1650-1.1700, while the lower support area is around 1.1450-1.1480.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is slightly strong, with a short cycle correction; pay attention to stabilization signals.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.