HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0619

Time	Data and Events	Importance
09:30	Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May	★★★
14:00	Switzerland’s trade balance for May	★★★
15:30	Switzerland’s central bank policy interest rate as of June 19	★★★
19:00	UK central bank interest rate decision as of June 19	★★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Low-level rebound	96-97	100-100.5
Gold	Short-term correction	3340-3360	3450-3480
Crude Oil	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	69-70	77-78
Euro	Short-term correction	1.1400-1.1430	1.1600-1.1630

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, and uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished. The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is stable. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, which is in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May slightly increased but was below expectations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index rebounded slightly yesterday, closing with a small bullish candlestick. The short-term trend is fluctuating, and there is still space to the resistance level above. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating rebound strategy, focusing on the effectiveness of the upper resistance area. Overall, the larger structure shows a weak fluctuation, with a large bearish candlestick on the weekly chart, indicating a short-term rebound trend. The upper resistance area is around 100-100.5, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Low-level rebound, short-term fluctuations upward, and there may still be room for an increase.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, and lowered inflation expectations for this year and next. The GDP growth forecast for next year was also revised downwards. In June, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year according to the dot plot. In May, the US non-farm payrolls saw a slight decline in new jobs, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May showed slight warming.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices experienced a slight decline during the day, closing with a bearish candlestick. The short-term trend appears weak, currently in a secondary-level correction, with no signs of stabilization yet. In the short term, it may continue to adjust, focusing on the effectiveness of the lower support area. From a larger perspective, the daily chart shows a strong fluctuation, encountering resistance near previous highs and retreating. The upper resistance level is around 3450-3480, while the lower support level is around 3340-3360.

Viewpoint: Short-term correction, with no signs of stabilization yet; focus on the effectiveness of the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the June EIA monthly report, crude oil prices for this year and next were slightly revised upward; the OPEC monthly report maintained its global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, as well as its economic growth expectations; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered its oil demand expectations for this year and next. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations scheduled for early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. The conflict in the Middle East may lead to tighter supply expectations. EIA crude oil inventories have significantly decreased, indicating signs of tightening supply and demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil futures slightly retraced overnight, not breaking through the recent support area, with multiple signs of upward movement in the short cycle. Prices have not significantly reached new highs, so caution is advised regarding selling pressure above, and there may be a risk of a market pullback; if there are long positions, consider taking profits at highs. Overall, crude oil has been in a low-level consolidation phase, then breaking upward at the daily level, showing signs of strengthening. The upper pressure area is around 77-78, while the lower support area is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, take profits on long positions at highs, and be cautious of small-level pullbacks.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a consecutive seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. It lowered inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year, with trade upgrades leading to slower economic growth and inflation. In June, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly higher short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for May showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price slightly rose and then fell in the overnight market, with a continued short-term pullback, showing weak performance without signs of a bottoming out. It is close to the support area below; if there are short positions, consider taking profits at lows and pay attention to the effectiveness of the support, as a fluctuating market may occur. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward fluctuation, with a strong structure at a higher level. The upper pressure area is around 1.1600-1.1630, while the lower support area is around 1.1400-1.1430.

Viewpoint: Short-term pullback, with no signs of a bottoming out yet; pay attention to the effectiveness of the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operations is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.