HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0620

Time	Data and Events	Importance
07:01	UK June Gfk Consumer Confidence Index	★★★
07:30	Japan May Core CPI Year-on-Year	★★★
14:00	Germany May PPI Month-on-Month	★★★
	UK May Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Month-on-Month	★★★
14:40	Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the Trust Association Annual Meeting	★★★
20:30	Canada April Retail Sales Month-on-Month	★★★
	US June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	★★★
22:00	Eurozone June Consumer Confidence Index Preliminary	★★★
	US May Conference Board Leading Economic Index Month-on-Month	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Low-level rebound	96-97	100-100.5
Gold	Short-term correction	3340-3360	3450-3480
Crude Oil	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	69-70	77-78
Euro	Short-term correction	1.1400-1.1450	1.1600-1.1630

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, and the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a stable labor market. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, roughly in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, showing a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May slightly increased but was below expectations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index slightly retreated in the overnight session, facing selling pressure above but also support below, possibly testing resistance levels again. Prices are at relatively low levels, with a high probability of a short-term fluctuating structure. Overall, a large-scale fluctuating weak structure is observed, with a large bearish candle on the weekly chart, indicating a short-term rebound trend. The upper resistance area is around 100-100.5, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Low-level rebound, with a short cycle fluctuating structure, indicating potential for further rebound.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year according to the dot plot. The US May non-farm payrolls showed a slight decline in new jobs, with the unemployment rate unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May showed slight warming.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, closing with a doji candlestick. The short cycle continues to adjust, but the pace of decline has noticeably slowed, approaching the support area below. Watch for signs of stabilization; if confirmed, the market may resume its upward trend. In the larger cycle, the daily chart shows a strong fluctuating trend, with resistance encountered near previous highs. The upper resistance level is around 3450-3480, while the lower support level is around 3340-3360.

Viewpoint: Short-term correction, signs of slowing decline, watch for stabilization signals.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the June EIA monthly report, crude oil prices for this year and next were slightly revised upward; the OPEC monthly report maintained its global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, as well as its economic growth expectations; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered its oil demand expectations for this year and next. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations scheduled for early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. The conflict in the Middle East may lead to tighter supply expectations. EIA crude oil inventories have significantly decreased, indicating signs of tightening supply and demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil futures saw a slight rise and then a pullback, with short-term fluctuations trending upward. The short-term performance remains relatively strong, and there may be opportunities for short-term long positions to take profits, but caution is advised regarding potential selling pressure above. Attention should be paid to whether prices can reach new highs. Overall, crude oil has experienced low-level fluctuations and consolidation, followed by a breakout at the daily level, indicating signs of a stronger trend. The upper pressure area is around 77-78, while the lower support area is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias, consider reducing positions to take profits on short-term long strategies, and be cautious of potential selling pressure above.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a consecutive seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. The inflation expectations for this year and next were lowered, along with the GDP growth forecast for next year, as trade escalations lead to slower economic growth and inflation. In June, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly elevated short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for May showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price saw a slight increase yesterday, with good support from the lower support area, but there may be resistance at the current position. If it cannot break through, the market may retest the support area, at which point attention should be paid to signs of stabilization. Overall, the daily trend is fluctuating upward, with a strong structure at a larger scale. The upper pressure area is around 1.1600-1.1630, while the lower support area is around 1.1400-1.1450.

Viewpoint: A short-term pullback may lead to a second retest of the support area, at which point attention should be paid to signs of stabilization.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.