HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0627

Time	Data and Events	Importance
07:50	Japan’s May unemployment rate	★★★
14:45	France’s June CPI month-on-month preliminary value	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s June industrial sentiment index	★★★
	Eurozone’s June economic sentiment index	★★★
19:30	FOMC permanent voting member Williams chairs a meeting at the 24th International Bank for Settlements Annual Meeting	★★★
20:30	Canada’s April GDP month-on-month	★★★
	U.S. May core PCE price index year-on-year	★★★★
	U.S. May personal spending month-on-month	★★★
	U.S. May core PCE price index month-on-month	★★★
21:15	2026 FOMC voting member Hamak and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook attend the “Federal Reserve Listening” event	★★★
22:00	U.S. June Michigan University consumer confidence index final value	★★★★
	U.S. June one-year inflation rate expectation final value	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating weak	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Short-term adjustment	3280-3300	3360-3380
Crude oil	Short-term adjustment	64-65	79-80
Euro	Fluctuating strong	1.1580-1.1600	1.1800-1.1850

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, and uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, with the unemployment rate at a low level and a stable labor market. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, which is basically in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May slightly increased but was below expectations, with a neutral short-term impact. Focus on the May core PCE price index.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continued its downward trend yesterday, with the daily line closing in the red, and the short-term showing a downward oscillation without signs of a bottoming out. There may be selling pressure above, and the short-term outlook is likely to remain fluctuating weak. Overall, the larger structure indicates a fluctuating weak trend, with the weekly line closing with a large red candle, maintaining a weak structure. The resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating weak, prices are making new lows without signs of a bottoming out.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran and turmoil in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year according to the dot plot. In May, U.S. non-farm payrolls saw a slight decline in new jobs, with the unemployment rate unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May showed slight warming. Attention is on changes in the Middle East situation.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price surged yesterday but encountered resistance and fell back, with significant selling pressure above. The short-term performance is relatively weak, currently near a support area, with no signs of a stop in the decline. If it breaks this structure, the market will further weaken, and at that time, one can look for rebound short opportunities. From a larger perspective, the daily chart shows a strong sideways movement, with resistance encountered near previous highs. The upper pressure levels are around 3360-3380, while the lower support levels are around 3280-3300.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, with weak performance in the short term; pay attention to whether the support area will be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The June EIA monthly report slightly raised oil prices for this year and next; the OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, as well as the economic growth forecast for this year and next; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations expected in early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. EIA crude oil inventories have decreased for the fifth consecutive week, and this data is highly volatile, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, with the daily line closing with a small real body. The short-term cycle has begun to consolidate, with prices approaching the lower support area and signs of slowing down in the decline. Pay attention to stabilization signals, and at that time, one can attempt to take long positions. Overall, crude oil has seen a significant rise previously, reaching a pressure area above, and is currently undergoing a short-term correction. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, with prices retracing to the neck support structure; pay attention to signals of stabilization.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a 25 basis point cut for the seventh consecutive time, with the rate-cutting cycle nearing its end. There has been no discussion on neutral interest rates, and inflation expectations for this year and next have been lowered, along with GDP growth rate expectations for next year. Trade upgrades have led to a slowdown in economic growth and inflation. In June, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly elevated short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, with not much difference.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price continued its upward trend yesterday, closing with a bullish candle on the daily chart. The short-term cycle is showing a strong upward trend, continuously reaching new highs. If there are long positions, it is advisable to take some profits at highs and pay attention to opportunities for low entries on pullbacks. Overall, the daily chart shows a strong upward trend, with a strong structure on a larger scale. The upper pressure area is around 1.1800-1.1850, while the lower support area is around 1.1580-1.1600.

Viewpoint: Strong sideways movement, pay attention to low entry opportunities on pullbacks, and take profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.