HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0714

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	U.S. President Trump plans to make a “major statement” regarding Russia.	★★★
07:15	U.S. President Trump delivers a speech.	★★★
20:30	Canada’s May wholesale sales month-on-month.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term rebound	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Short-term fluctuations	3300-3330	3380-3400
Crude Oil	Fluctuating with a strong bias	64-65	79-80
Euro	Short-term pullback	1.1600-1.1620	1.1750-1.1780

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, and the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a stable labor market. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, showing a robust labor market. The core PCE price index in May saw a slight rebound; the ISM manufacturing PMI in May also showed a slight increase. Attention is on the June year-on-year CPI data.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index experienced a rebound last week, with daily fluctuations trending upward. The short-term performance is relatively strong, with bulls slightly in favor and no signs of weakening, indicating potential for further rebound. Overall, the larger structure shows a weak fluctuation, with a slowing decline, entering a rebound phase in the short term. The upper resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, bulls slightly in favor, with potential for further rebound.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year in May showed slight warming. Attention is on the U.S. June CPI data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices fell then rose last week, closing on Friday with a recovery from the decline, and the weekly chart shows a lower shadow. The support below is quite effective, and there may be opportunities to try buying on dips during the day, taking profits at highs. Currently, it is close to the upper resistance area, and if it breaks through, the market may strengthen further. From a larger perspective, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper minor resistance level is around 3380-3400, while the lower support level is around 3300-3330.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, attempt short-term buying opportunities during the day, and pay attention to whether the resistance structure can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the July EIA monthly report, the forecast for this year’s crude oil prices was slightly raised; the June OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, as well as the economic growth forecast for this year and next; the July IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next. At the beginning of July, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with expectations for another increase in September and discussions about pausing the increase from October. EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant increase, with large data fluctuations that may affect the supply-demand structure. Attention is on the OPEC monthly report on Tuesday and the EIA crude oil inventory on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently shown a strong performance, with daily fluctuations trending upward and a large bullish weekly close. In the short term, the bulls are dominant, but there may be selling pressure at the current position. Focus on whether it can break through, with a primary strategy of buying on dips and appropriately reducing holdings to take profits at highs. Overall, crude oil has seen a significant pullback, testing important structures, and may show signs of stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, focusing on buying on dips in the short term.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a continuous seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral rates. The inflation forecast for this year and next was lowered, along with the GDP growth forecast for next year, as trade upgrades led to slower economic growth and inflation. The June Federal Reserve interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a stable labor market, slightly higher short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI was slightly below expectations, with not much difference.

Technical Analysis:

The euro showed a weak performance last week, with daily fluctuations trending downward and no signs of a bottoming out in the short cycle. A short-term continuation of the pullback trend is likely, with a primary strategy of selling at highs and reducing holdings to take profits at lows. Overall, the daily trend is fluctuating upward, with a strong structure at a larger scale, entering a short-term adjustment. The upper pressure area is around 1.1750-1.1780, while the lower support area is around 1.1600-1.1620.

Viewpoint: Short-term pullback, attempting to rebound with opportunities to sell at highs and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.