HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0724

Time	Data and Events	Importance
11:05	Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe delivers a speech	★★★
14:00	Germany’s August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index	★★★
15:15	France’s July Manufacturing PMI Preliminary	★★★
15:30	Germany’s July Manufacturing PMI Preliminary	★★★
16:00	Eurozone’s July Manufacturing PMI Preliminary	★★★
16:30	UK’s July Manufacturing PMI Preliminary	★★★
	UK’s July Services PMI Preliminary	★★★
20:15	Eurozone’s ECB Deposit Facility Rate as of July 24	★★★★
	Eurozone’s ECB Main Refinancing Rate as of July 24	★★★
20:30	Canada’s May Retail Sales Month-on-Month	★★★
	US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 19	★★★★
20:45	ECB President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference	★★★
21:45	US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Preliminary	★★★
	US July S&P Global Services PMI Preliminary	★★★
22:00	US June New Home Sales Annualized	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Fluctuating Weak	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Fluctuating Strong	3350-3360	3430-3450
Crude Oil	Short-term Adjustment	64-65	68-69
Euro	Fluctuating Strong	1.1700-1.1720	1.1800-1.1820

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the June Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were held steady for the fourth consecutive time. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, and uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished. The unemployment rate is at a low level, and the labor market is stable. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, indicating a robust labor market. The core PCE price index rose slightly in May; the ISM Manufacturing PMI in June saw a slight increase, and the CPI year-on-year in June was 2.7%, with moderate inflation rising in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index saw a slight rise and fall in the overnight session, with a daily line showing a long upper shadow. There is selling pressure above, and no signs of a stop in the decline have appeared. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating weak outlook, possibly testing the support area near previous lows. Overall, it shows a large-scale fluctuating weak structure, with prices retesting, focusing on the support area near previous lows. The resistance area above is around 99.5-100, while the support area below is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating weak, with a small cycle continuing to decline, possibly testing the effectiveness of the support below.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, with no signs of easing, while the situation in Eastern Europe remains unstable. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a consecutive seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, and lowered inflation expectations for this year and next. The GDP growth forecast for next year was also downgraded. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high and a robust labor market, while the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the June CPI year-on-year rate showed a slight increase, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices experienced a significant pullback yesterday, encountering resistance near previous highs, with a small cycle entering adjustment. Currently, it is testing the support area below, and attention should be paid to signs of stabilization; the market may attempt to test resistance levels again, with a focus on whether prices can reach new highs; otherwise, caution is warranted regarding the risk of a market downturn. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper resistance level is around 3430-3450, while the lower support level is around 3350-3360.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, entering a short-term pullback, pay attention to signs of stabilization, and look for opportunities to go long at lower prices.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised this year’s crude oil price forecast; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered oil demand forecasts for this year and next. At the beginning of July, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with expectations for another production increase in September and discussions on pausing production increases starting in October. As of the week ending July 18, EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant decrease, with this data tightening for two consecutive weeks, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil continued its fluctuating trend yesterday, with little intraday volatility, as prices consistently tested the support area without a significant breakdown. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating structure, with attention on signs of stabilization; if there is a clear breakdown of the support structure, the market may weaken. Overall, the crude oil support area is in a fluctuating adjustment phase, with a focus on signs of stabilization at a larger level. The upper pressure area is around 68-69, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support area; if it breaks, the market may weaken further.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a consecutive seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. It lowered inflation expectations for this year and next, and downgraded the GDP growth forecast for next year, as trade escalations lead to slower economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly high short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty, while the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. Attention is on Thursday’s ECB interest rate decision and the preliminary manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently shown a strong performance, with a slight pullback during the night session followed by continued upward movement. The daily chart shows a long lower shadow, indicating a small cycle of upward fluctuations. In the short term, it may test the pressure near previous highs, primarily focusing on a low-buy strategy during pullbacks, and taking profits at highs. Overall, the larger upward structure remains unchanged, with short-term stabilization potentially restoring the upward trend. The upper pressure area is around 1.1800-1.1820, while the lower support area is around 1.1700-1.1720.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, may test the previous high resistance level, primarily focusing on short-term long strategies.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.