HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0728

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	High-level economic and trade talks between China and the U.S. will be held in Sweden from July 27 to 30.	★★★★★
18:00	UK July CBI Retail Sales Balance	★★★
20:00	OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting	★★★
22:30	U.S. July Dallas Fed Business Activity Index	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Low-level fluctuations	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Short-term correction	3300-3320	3360-3380
Crude Oil	Short-term adjustment	64-65	68-69
Euro	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	1.1700-1.1720	1.1800-1.1820

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, uncertainty in economic outlook has somewhat diminished, and the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a stable labor market. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, showing a robust labor market. The June ISM Manufacturing PMI saw a slight increase, and the June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, indicating moderate inflation in line with expectations. Focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Thursday and non-farm data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index experienced a significant pullback last week, with daily fluctuations trending downward, testing previous low support areas without a clear breakdown. A rebound is seen in the short term, and it may maintain a fluctuating structure, with attention on whether a stabilization signal appears. Overall, a larger-scale weak fluctuating structure is observed, with prices retesting previous low support areas. The upper resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Low-level fluctuations, signs of a short-term rebound, focus on the effectiveness of lower support.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, with no signs of easing, and the situation in Eastern Europe remains unstable. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates, with inflation meeting expectations, and the economy showing resilience but facing downside risks, with trade conditions unclear. The June Federal Reserve interest rate decision remained unchanged, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year. In June, the U.S. added 147,000 jobs in non-farm payrolls, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the June CPI year-on-year showed a slight increase, in line with expectations. Focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices surged and then retreated last week, with a long upper shadow on the weekly chart and daily fluctuations trending downward. There is significant selling pressure above, and it is currently in a support area, with attention on whether a stabilization signal appears; if so, the market may rebound. If this structure breaks down, the market may weaken further. From a larger cycle perspective, daily fluctuations are high, with prices moving back and forth. The upper resistance level is around 3360-3380, while the lower support level is around 3300-3320.

Viewpoint: Short-term correction, prices retesting support areas, focus on stabilization signals.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the July EIA monthly report, the forecast for this year’s crude oil prices was slightly raised; in the OPEC monthly report, June production saw a slight increase, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next. At the beginning of July, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with expectations for another increase in September, and discussions will be held to pause the increase starting in October. As of the week ending July 18, EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant decrease, with this data tightening for two consecutive weeks, which may affect the supply-demand structure. Attention is on the OPEC ministerial meeting on Monday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil experienced slight fluctuations and a retreat last week, closing with a bearish weekly candle. The short-term high points are decreasing sequentially, and there is selling pressure above, but the current price remains in a support area without a significant breakdown. Short-term trading is intense, and a range-bound market may continue, with attention on the breakout direction. Overall, crude oil is adjusting within the support area, and attention should be paid to signs of stabilization at a larger scale. The pressure area above is around 68-69, while the support area below is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, maintaining a high probability of range-bound fluctuations, with attention on the breakout direction.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with the inflation outlook generally in line with expectations, though future uncertainties exist due to unclear tariff policies and trade conditions. The Eurozone economy remains resilient, with economic growth leaning towards downside risks. In June, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also maintained rates unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly elevated short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The preliminary values of the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and major economies showed little change, generally in line with expectations. Attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and non-farm payroll data.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently shown strong performance, continuously testing previous high resistance levels but failing to break through significantly. Caution is warranted as there may be selling pressure above, and there is a risk of a market pullback. If there are long positions, consider taking profits on highs while also monitoring the potential for new highs. Overall, the larger upward structure remains unchanged, and a short-term pullback may stabilize, potentially resuming an upward trend. The pressure area above is around 1.1800-1.1820, while the support area below is around 1.1700-1.1720.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias, possibly testing previous high resistance levels; if there are long positions, consider taking profits on highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.