HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0730

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25	★★★
09:30	Australia’s Q2 CPI year-on-year	★★★
13:30	France’s Q2 GDP year-on-year preliminary value	★★★
15:00	Switzerland’s July KOF economic leading indicator	★★★
16:00	Germany’s Q2 unadjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary value	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s Q2 GDP year-on-year preliminary value	★★★
20:15	U.S. ADP employment change for July	★★★★
20:30	U.S. Q2 annualized GDP growth rate preliminary value	★★★
	U.S. Q2 core PCE price index annualized growth rate preliminary value	★★★
	U.S. Treasury Department’s quarterly refinancing report	★★★
21:45	Canada’s central bank interest rate decision for the week ending July 30	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25	★★★★
	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending July 25	★★★
	U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending July 25	★★★
Next day 02:00	U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision for the week ending July 30	★★★★★
Next day 02:30	Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference	★★★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating rebound	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Short-term fluctuations	3300-3320	3360-3380
Crude oil	Fluctuating with a strong bias	66-67	72-73
Euro	Fluctuating pullback	1.1480-1.1500	1.1700-1.1720

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the June Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were held steady for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, and the unemployment rate is at a low level, indicating a stable labor market. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, showing a robust labor market. The ISM manufacturing PMI for June saw a slight increase, and the June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, with moderate inflation rising in line with expectations. Focus on Thursday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Friday’s non-farm payroll data.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index rose slightly yesterday, with a small cycle of upward fluctuations. Prices are approaching resistance levels, and the rate of increase is slowing, with no signs of weakening yet, suggesting there may still be room for further increases. Attention should be paid to whether the resistance structure can be broken. Overall, after a significant decline in previous trends, the daily chart shows fluctuations and consolidation, with a focus on signs of stabilization. The upper resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, short-term performance is relatively strong, pay attention to whether the resistance level can be broken. Focus on the interest rate decision.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, with no signs of easing, and the situation in Eastern Europe is turbulent. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintains rates unchanged, inflation meets expectations, the economy remains resilient but faces downside risks, and the trade situation is unclear. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision also maintained rates unchanged, with inflation slightly high and a robust labor market; the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the June CPI year-on-year rate slightly warmed up, meeting expectations. Focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices rebounded slightly yesterday, with a small bullish candle on the daily chart, and the support area was not significantly broken. The short-term structure is relatively fluctuating, and a rebound may occur in the short term. One can try to take long positions at low points during the day and take profits at high points in a timely manner. From a larger perspective, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper resistance level is around 3360-3380, and the lower support level is around 3300-3320.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, the support area has not been broken, pay attention to whether there are signs of stabilization. Focus on the interest rate decision.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised the oil price forecast for this year; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this and next year. At the beginning of July, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with another increase expected in September, and discussions will be held to pause the increase from October. As of the week ending July 18, EIA crude oil inventories significantly decreased, with this data tightening for two consecutive weeks, which may affect the supply-demand structure. Focus on the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil prices surged significantly yesterday, with a large bullish candle on the daily chart, and the short-term performance is strong, with prices clearly breaking through the upper boundary of the fluctuation range, indicating a shift from fluctuation to strength. Pay attention to opportunities for long positions on pullbacks and take profits in a timely manner at high points. Overall, the crude oil support area is in a fluctuating adjustment phase, focusing on signs of stabilization at a larger level. The upper resistance area is around 72-73, and the lower support area is around 66-67.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a bias towards strength, prices have broken through the fluctuation range, pay attention to opportunities for long positions on pullbacks.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with the overall inflation outlook meeting expectations, but future uncertainties may exist, and the tariff policy and trade situation are unclear. The eurozone economy remains resilient, but economic growth tends to face downside risks. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision also maintained rates unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly high short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty; the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The preliminary values of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone and major economies changed little, basically meeting expectations. Focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price continued to decline yesterday, with a short-term downward fluctuation. The price is approaching the support area, showing a slight rebound, but has not yet stabilized at a larger level. One should be cautious of selling pressure above, maintaining a fluctuating correction mindset in the short term. Overall, the larger upward structure remains unchanged, with a short-term correction underway. The upper resistance area is around 1.1700-1.1720, and the lower support area is around 1.1480-1.1500.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating correction, the lower area is approaching the support area, and the short-term structure is relatively fluctuating. Focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.