HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0528

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	The 39th OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries ministerial meeting will be held.	★★★
08:00	FOMC permanent voting member Williams participates in a panel discussion at the Bank of Japan’s Financial Research Institute meeting.	★★★
	Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo delivers a speech.	★★★
09:30	Australia’s April weighted CPI year-on-year	★★★
10:00	New Zealand’s interest rate decision until May 28	★★★
11:00	New Zealand Reserve Bank Governor Orr holds a monetary policy press conference.	★★★
14:45	France’s first quarter GDP year-on-year final value	★★★
15:55	Germany’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment figures	★★★
	Germany’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate	★★★
16:00	Switzerland’s May ZEW Investor Confidence Index	★★★
22:00	U.S. May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	★★★
Next day 02:00	The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the May monetary policy meeting.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Low-level fluctuations	97-98	101-102
Gold	Fluctuating pullback	3280-3300	3350-3370
Crude Oil	Short-term fluctuations	57-58	64-65
Euro	Short-term fluctuations	1.1300-1.1330	1.1400-1.1420

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate stabilized; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In April, non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year in April slightly decreased, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts. Attention is on the core PCE price index on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index shows a slight rebound on the daily chart, with a small cycle leaning towards fluctuations. Prices are close to previous low levels, and the rate of decline is slowing. In the short term, it may maintain fluctuations, and attention should be paid to whether there are signs of price stabilization. Overall, the daily chart shows weak fluctuations, with prices at relatively low levels, and it is important to observe whether prices can create new lows. The upper resistance area is around 101-102, while the lower support area is around 97-98.

Viewpoint: Low-level fluctuations, signs of slowing decline, pay attention to the effectiveness of the previous low support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and the situation in Eastern Europe remains unstable. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in April saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience showing some improvement. In May, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a resilient labor market and a slight increase in short-term inflation, while continuing its balance sheet reduction plan, leading to increased economic downside risks. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April showed that the number of new jobs exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for April saw a moderate decline. The U.S. tariff policy is becoming more relaxed, which may temper the safe-haven attributes of gold.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have fluctuated at high levels and retreated, with a bearish daily close and signs of weakness in the short cycle. Caution is advised regarding the risk of further declines in the market, and short-term high short opportunities can be attempted for timely profits. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows a high-level fluctuation structure, with resistance encountered during the short cycle rebound, indicating potential selling pressure above. The upper pressure level is around 3350-3370, while the lower support level is around 3280-3300.

Viewpoint: Fluctuation and pullback, signs of resistance at the pressure level, caution against the risk of market weakening.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report maintains the global crude oil demand forecast for this and next year, with a slight downward adjustment to U.S. crude oil production for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, while lowering the economic growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly raises the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of May, the OPEC+ member countries’ meeting will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. EIA crude oil inventories have increased slightly, with a loose supply-demand structure. Attention is focused on the OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries’ ministerial meeting on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has been fluctuating continuously on a daily basis, with little volatility. The short cycle is characterized by intense competition, with pressure above and support below, and prices are at relatively low levels. Attention should be paid to whether there can be a clear breakout of the pressure structure; if so, the market may strengthen; otherwise, it may maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance in the past, with repeated fluctuations at low levels, and has not yet shown signs of significant stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 64-65, while the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuation, focus on whether the pressure level can be broken, and pay attention to the impact of the OPEC+ meeting.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in April saw a consecutive sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience showing some improvement. The monetary policy stance is dynamically adjusted based on data and assessed in stages, with attention to trade conditions. In May, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a resilient labor market and a slight increase in short-term inflation, while continuing its balance sheet reduction plan, leading to increased economic downside risks. The U.S. non-farm employment figures for April slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for April saw a moderate decline. The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in May showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price slightly retreated yesterday, with adjustments in the short cycle. There may be selling pressure above, but there is also support below, indicating a high probability of fluctuation in the short term. Both high selling and low buying can be considered during the day for timely profits. Overall, there are signs of stabilization in the pullback, with a daily upward fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the pressure structure. The upper pressure area is around 1.1400-1.1420, while the lower support area is around 1.1300-1.1330.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuation, with potential selling pressure above, caution against the risk of market weakening.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.