HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0616

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	OPEC releases monthly oil market report	★★★
20:30	US June New York Fed Manufacturing Index	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Weak fluctuations	96-97	100-100.5
Gold	Strong fluctuations	3370-3400	3480-3500
Crude Oil	Strong fluctuations	68-69	77-78
Euro	Strong fluctuations	1.1450-1.1480	1.1650-1.1700

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In early May, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, roughly in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a stable labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May rose slightly but was below expectations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index performed weakly last week, with prices breaking below previous lows, and upward pressure may form. A slight rebound in the short cycle has occurred, but no signs of stabilization have emerged, and the weak fluctuation trend may continue in the short term. Overall, a large-scale weak fluctuation structure is observed, with a large bearish candle on the weekly chart and a downward fluctuation on the daily chart, with prices reaching new lows. The upper resistance area is around 100-100.5, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, with a possible rebound in the short cycle; pay attention to the upper resistance area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran and turmoil in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with downward revisions to inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision maintained rates, with a resilient labor market and a slight rise in short-term inflation, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan, while downside risks to the economy increased. The US May non-farm data showed a slight decline in new jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May showed slight warming.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices performed strongly last week, with consecutive daily increases and no signs of weakening. In the short term, it may test previous high resistance levels; caution is advised for small-level pullbacks, with a focus on reducing positions for profit at highs and a primary strategy of buying on dips. Attention should be paid to whether prices can reach new highs. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows strong fluctuations, possibly testing resistance near previous highs. The upper resistance level is around 3480-3500, while the lower support level is around 3370-3400.

Viewpoint: Strong fluctuations, with a strategy of buying on dips and reducing positions for profit at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The June EIA monthly report slightly raised oil price forecasts for this year and next. The May OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for this year while lowering economic growth expectations for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly raised oil demand growth expectations for 2025. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027 and will hold another round of negotiations in early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. EIA crude oil inventories decreased significantly, tightening the supply-demand structure. The conflict in the Middle East may lead to expectations of tighter supply.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil surged significantly last week, with a rapid increase on the daily chart, approaching resistance levels where selling pressure may exist. It is not advisable to chase the rise; if there are long positions, consider taking profits at highs. In the short term, there may be fluctuations, so wait for a pullback to find buying opportunities. Overall, crude oil has been consolidating at lower levels, and then broke out on the daily chart, showing signs of a stronger trend. The upper resistance area is around 77-78, while the lower support area is around 68-69.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, take profits on long positions at highs, and be cautious of minor pullbacks.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a continuous reduction of 25 basis points for the seventh time, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. The inflation forecast for this year and next has been lowered, along with the GDP growth forecast for next year. Trade tensions have led to a slowdown in economic growth and inflation. In May, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a resilient labor market and a short-term rise in inflation, continuing its balance sheet reduction plan, while economic downside risks have increased. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI in May showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently surged significantly, clearly breaking through previous highs, followed by a minor pullback in a shorter cycle, but this does not change the upward structure. Pay attention to the support area below; if there are signs of stabilization, consider trying to buy on the dip and take profits at highs. Overall, the daily chart shows a slight upward bias, with prices breaking through previous highs. The upper resistance area is around 1.1650-1.1700, while the lower support area is around 1.1450-1.1480.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, pay attention to the support structure below, and try to find buying opportunities on pullbacks while taking profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.