HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0710

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:00	Germany’s June CPI month-on-month final value	★★★
20:30	U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5	★★★
21:00	2025 FOMC voting member Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending July 4	★★★
Next day 01:15	Federal Reserve Governor Waller participates in a panel discussion at an event hosted by the Dallas Fed and the Dallas/Fort Worth World Affairs Council	★★★
Next day 02:30	2027 FOMC voting member Daly speaks on the U.S. economic outlook	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term rebound	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Fluctuating weak	3220-3250	3350-3380
Crude Oil	Fluctuating strong	64-65	79-80
Euro	Short-term pullback	1.1680-1.1700	1.1780-1.1800

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the June meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, and uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has somewhat diminished. The unemployment rate is at a low level, and the labor market is stable. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May slightly increased but was below expectations; the core PCE price index for May showed a slight rebound; the ISM manufacturing PMI for May also showed a slight rebound.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated and retreated yesterday, closing with an upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating selling pressure above. Short-term trading is intense, and there is a possibility of a pullback to the support below, with a higher probability of continuing the rebound. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support area. Overall, the large-scale structure is fluctuating weakly, with a slowdown in the rate of decline, and a short-term rebound trend is emerging. The resistance area above is around 99.5-100, while the support area below is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, with bulls slightly favored; pay attention to the effectiveness of the support area below.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran and turmoil in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next. The June Federal Reserve interest rate decision maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for May showed slight warming.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price saw a significant rebound in the night market, with decent support below, but there is also selling pressure above. The short-term structure is a downward oscillation, with intense competition in the short cycle. Pay attention to the pressure area above, and consider trying short positions during the day to take profits in a timely manner. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows high-level oscillation, with prices fluctuating back and forth. The small-level pressure zone is around 3350-3380, while the support zone below is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is slightly weak, with a rebound in the short cycle. Focus on the pressure area above and try short positions during the day.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised this year’s crude oil price forecast; the June OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, as well as the economic growth forecast for this year and next; the June IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027, with another round of negotiations expected in early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, with large data fluctuations that may affect the supply-demand structure. Pay attention to the IEA crude oil report on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil experienced slight oscillation yesterday, closing with a doji on the daily chart. The short cycle faced resistance after a rise and did not break through significantly to the upside. In the short term, bulls still dominate, and the probability of continued rebound is relatively high, focusing on buying on dips. Overall, crude oil has undergone a significant correction previously, testing important structures, which may signal stabilization. The pressure area above is around 79-80, while the support area below is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is slightly strong, with a focus on buying on dips in the short term.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a continuous seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral rates. The inflation forecast for this year and next was lowered, as was the GDP growth forecast for next year, due to trade upgrades leading to slower economic growth and inflation. The June Federal Reserve interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly high short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, with not much difference.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price showed a slightly oscillating structure yesterday, with the short cycle testing the support area multiple times without a significant breakdown. There is pressure above and support below, and in the short term, there may be a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Pay attention to the direction of the breakout; if there is a significant breakdown of the support structure, be cautious of further market corrections. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward oscillation, with a strong structure in the larger cycle, entering a short-term adjustment. The pressure area above is around 1.1780-1.1800, while the small-level support area below is around 1.1680-1.1700.

Viewpoint: Short-term correction, try short positions during the day and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are speculative in nature, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.